Ryan Dempster (2-1, 4.86 era) will face Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 3.02 era) @ Miller Park with a start time of 6:05 CST.
Ryan Dempster brings a .264 Dominance Rating in to the game. Dempster is entering his 2nd year as a starting pitcher, after being converted from a starter to a closer. Historically he is a groundball pitcher, but has been neutral so far this season. He keeps the ball in the yard, allowing a fewer than 10% of flyballs to leave for homeruns in 5 of the past 6 seasons. He is a fastball, slider, splitter pitcher - who's FB averages 90 mph.
Yovani Gallardo has a .117 Dominance Rating coming into the game against the division rivals. Yo is inducing more groundballs this season, but is historically a neutral pitcher in his brief career in the bigs. He, like Dempster, is a sub 10% HR/FB pitcher. Gallardo relies in his fastball and curve, but will mix in a change and slider. His heater averages 91 mph.
Keys for success:
*Gallardo must get his 1st pitch over the strike zone more often than 50%.
*Brewer hitters must attack Dempsters 1st pitch (which is thrown for a strike 61% of the time)
*If they fall behind in the count Dempster will work outside of the zone and the Brewers must not chase.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Brewers SP Dominance Ratings
The Brewer starting pitchers ranked the following way according to Dominance Ratings (See previous posts for explanation of the rating).
Braden Looper - .142 Dominance - He has been a pleasant surprise and has proven to be one of their top starters instead of the back of the rotation filler he was signed to be.
Yovani Gallardo - .115 Dominance - The only drawback to Yo is that he is pitching from behind way too often because he is only getting his 1st pitch thrown across the plate for a strike in 49.4% of plate appearances.
Manny Parra - .088 Dominance - He has the same contact rate as Yo (about 80%), but gets his 1st pitch over for a strike even less and doesn't get batters to chase as much because of it.
Dave Bush - .086 Dominance - He gets his 1st pitch over, but like Parra doesn't get more than league average to chase and is most hittable of the starters.
Jeff Suppan - .077 Dominance - Hittable, but throws his 1st pitch for a strike. Gets far below league average to chase pitches outside the zone.
Braden Looper - .142 Dominance - He has been a pleasant surprise and has proven to be one of their top starters instead of the back of the rotation filler he was signed to be.
Yovani Gallardo - .115 Dominance - The only drawback to Yo is that he is pitching from behind way too often because he is only getting his 1st pitch thrown across the plate for a strike in 49.4% of plate appearances.
Manny Parra - .088 Dominance - He has the same contact rate as Yo (about 80%), but gets his 1st pitch over for a strike even less and doesn't get batters to chase as much because of it.
Dave Bush - .086 Dominance - He gets his 1st pitch over, but like Parra doesn't get more than league average to chase and is most hittable of the starters.
Jeff Suppan - .077 Dominance - Hittable, but throws his 1st pitch for a strike. Gets far below league average to chase pitches outside the zone.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Mark DiFelice
I was at the game in Houston when Mark DeFelice came into the game and got everyone laughing with his 84-86 mph fastball. I am not sure how he does it, but something about DiFelice fools hitters enough to baffle them at the plate. Just looking at his short career numbers you would assume that he is a flame throwing closer: 2.27 era, 9.24 K/9, 4.33 K/BB, and a .232 average against.
Looking at his pitch selection, you notice that he relies on his cutter which he throws 81% of the time at 82.7 mph on average. He will also mix in a chance and fastball, but they are only a few mph slower and faster than his cutter, so he isn't fooling hitters on speed. I have not fouled around with Pitch F/X, but I assume that the cutter really moves. He has gotten batters to chase 44.6% of balls out of the zone this year, and relies on the strategy of pound the zone on the 1st pitch (70% 1st pitch K) and then avoid the plate (43.2% of pitches in the zone). It may not take long before batters start keying in on the 1st pitch strike, but for now DeFelice continues to be one of the most intriguing statistical freaks in the game.
Looking at his pitch selection, you notice that he relies on his cutter which he throws 81% of the time at 82.7 mph on average. He will also mix in a chance and fastball, but they are only a few mph slower and faster than his cutter, so he isn't fooling hitters on speed. I have not fouled around with Pitch F/X, but I assume that the cutter really moves. He has gotten batters to chase 44.6% of balls out of the zone this year, and relies on the strategy of pound the zone on the 1st pitch (70% 1st pitch K) and then avoid the plate (43.2% of pitches in the zone). It may not take long before batters start keying in on the 1st pitch strike, but for now DeFelice continues to be one of the most intriguing statistical freaks in the game.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Brewers Patient Style at the Plate
Many Brewer fans have been disappointed with the Brewers free swinging approach in recent seasons, but with new manager Ken Macha in charge the squad has shown more discipline at the plate. The problem comes that it has not turned into more runs per game (albeit in a small sample size)
Will the Brewers continue to be patient at the plate if their runs per game sits in the low 4's, or will they revert back to the hackers that came through the minor league system? On a side note, the O-Swing% numbers for the entire MLB were lower than normal data, so I am guessing that you could bump another .040 to that percentage to make it more accurate.
|
| O-Swing% | Wins | Loses | Runs | Runs/Game |
| 2005 | .206 | 81 | 81 | 726 | 4.48 |
| 2006 | .234 | 75 | 87 | 730 | 4.51 |
| 2007 | .260 | 83 | 79 | 801 | 4.94 |
| 2008 | .259 | 90 | 72 | 750 | 4.63 |
| 2009 | .226 | 12 | 12 | 102 | 4.25 |
Will the Brewers continue to be patient at the plate if their runs per game sits in the low 4's, or will they revert back to the hackers that came through the minor league system? On a side note, the O-Swing% numbers for the entire MLB were lower than normal data, so I am guessing that you could bump another .040 to that percentage to make it more accurate.
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