The Brewers enter the off-season of a disappointing season to some, but probably about where honest expectations placed them. They no doubt were hurt by losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, even with Yovanni Gallardo stepping up to fill an ace role. Prince Fielder had an exceptional season, along with Ryan Braun, but those are givens for the next decade of their careers. So the main question is, where do the Brewers look in the off-season?
Top Off-Season Stories To Follow:
1. Brewers Starting Rotation: It is Gallardo, and who else? Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan, and Braden Looper will probably fill roles. Manny Parra has the talent to step up to the #2 slot, but hasn't put it together. The Brewers will need to delegate resources to landing a solid #2 SP option (whether that is with cash or players).
2. Prince Fielder Trade Rumors: Brewer management has went on the record stating that they will not trade away Prince Fielder, but with Matt Gamel a better fit at 1B than 3B don't be surprised if the club finds a "trade they couldn't pass up" sending Fielder to another club for a solid SP.
3. JJ Hardy: Nobody has dropped quicker than Hardy, and with Escobar ready to take over at SS it is obvious to everyone that Hardy will be shopped. What isn't clear is what value Hardy has on the trade block.
4. Who will roam CF? Mike Cameron is a free agent, and will likely sign with another club. Are the Brewers willing to shift Corey Hart or Rickie Weeks over to center field or will they be looking to bring in another option?
5. Lead-off Hitter: Rickie Weeks was having a great season before it was cut short by injury. He is not a typical lead-off hitter, and would probably be better served to bat #2 or #5 in the order. Corey Hart doesn't have the OBP to be the man either. Felipe Lopez, who is a free agent, had a .383 OBP last season but only has a .338 over his career (he is not a lead-off hitter either).
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Friday, July 31, 2009
Claudio Vargas: Second Tour of Duty
A minor deal for the Brewers early on the Trade Deadline Day as they move 29 year old career minor leaguers Vinny Rottino to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher Claudio Vargas. Vargas could fill in a back end of the rotation slot for the Brewers on a temporary basis, but could easily just be a mop-up guy as well. Either way the expectations for Vargas should be extremely low.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
July 16, 2009 - Reds vs Brewers Preview
Homer Bailey (1-0, 5.16, 6.35 K/9) takes the hill for the Cincinnati Reds as they try to fight back into the NL Central race against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Bailey was once a top pitching prospect in MLB, but has never lived up to his potential as he has never been able to consistently find the strike zone. He started the year in AAA and dominated the hitters and shown good control (3.04 K/BB), but has not be able to translate the minor league success to the majors again this season.
Bailey has consistently been a ground ball pitcher, but has given up more flyballs than ground balls in his brief stint in the bigs in 2009. His fastball averages at 93.7 mph, and he relies on it 67% of the time. He will also throw a slider (17%), curve (7%), splitter (6.5%), and change (2.5%). His fastball, slider, curve, and change have graded out as plus pitches this season, but all pitches are graded as negatives for his career.
Bailey struggles to find the strike zone on his first pitch (48.5%) and only finds the strike zone on 51.2% of his pitches. Basically he has fallen behind hitters early and has been forced to throw strikes which obviously hasn't produced good results. Batters have not chased pitches off the zone, only 16% of the time.
OVERVIEW
The Brewer hitters will need to show patience, something that they have done under manager Ken Macha, and take advantage of Bailey being forced to throw strikes when he is behind in the count. This is a good series for the Brewers to open the second half of the season with as they get the Reds without Jay Bruce, and should be able to take at least 3 of the 4 games.
Bailey was once a top pitching prospect in MLB, but has never lived up to his potential as he has never been able to consistently find the strike zone. He started the year in AAA and dominated the hitters and shown good control (3.04 K/BB), but has not be able to translate the minor league success to the majors again this season.
Bailey has consistently been a ground ball pitcher, but has given up more flyballs than ground balls in his brief stint in the bigs in 2009. His fastball averages at 93.7 mph, and he relies on it 67% of the time. He will also throw a slider (17%), curve (7%), splitter (6.5%), and change (2.5%). His fastball, slider, curve, and change have graded out as plus pitches this season, but all pitches are graded as negatives for his career.
Bailey struggles to find the strike zone on his first pitch (48.5%) and only finds the strike zone on 51.2% of his pitches. Basically he has fallen behind hitters early and has been forced to throw strikes which obviously hasn't produced good results. Batters have not chased pitches off the zone, only 16% of the time.
OVERVIEW
The Brewer hitters will need to show patience, something that they have done under manager Ken Macha, and take advantage of Bailey being forced to throw strikes when he is behind in the count. This is a good series for the Brewers to open the second half of the season with as they get the Reds without Jay Bruce, and should be able to take at least 3 of the 4 games.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Dominance and Nibble Ratings: MLB Pitchers
I adjusted the formula some for "Pitching Dominance" the average pitcher with a minimum of 40 innings will have a rating of .136.
Top 10 Pitching Dominance
1. Rich Harden - .283 (contact rate and O-Swing% get him the #1 ratings, his F-Strike% is horrible)
2. Javier Vazquez - .271
3. Dan Haren - .252
4. Johan Santana - .247
5. Chad Billingsle - .244
6. Felix Hernandez - .240
7. Scott Richmond - .234
8. Roy Halladay - .234
9. Ryan Dempster - .233
10. Koji Uehara - .226
Top 10 Nibble Rating
1. Randy Wells - 20.6%
2. Dan Haren - 19.5%
3. Glen Perkins - 18.9%
4. Javier Vazquez - 18.7%
5. Roy Halladay - 18.0%
6. Andy Pettitte - 17.7%
7. Carlos Zambrano - 17.0%
8. Josh Beckett - 16.2%
9. Jamie Moyer - 16.1%
10. Chris Jakubauskas - 15.9%
Players That Have a minimum of .190 Dominance and minimum of 14.5% Nibble
Javier Vazquez
Dan Haren
Roy Halladay
Scott Richmond
Koji Uehara
Zack Greinke
Ricky Romero
Top 10 Pitching Dominance
1. Rich Harden - .283 (contact rate and O-Swing% get him the #1 ratings, his F-Strike% is horrible)
2. Javier Vazquez - .271
3. Dan Haren - .252
4. Johan Santana - .247
5. Chad Billingsle - .244
6. Felix Hernandez - .240
7. Scott Richmond - .234
8. Roy Halladay - .234
9. Ryan Dempster - .233
10. Koji Uehara - .226
Top 10 Nibble Rating
1. Randy Wells - 20.6%
2. Dan Haren - 19.5%
3. Glen Perkins - 18.9%
4. Javier Vazquez - 18.7%
5. Roy Halladay - 18.0%
6. Andy Pettitte - 17.7%
7. Carlos Zambrano - 17.0%
8. Josh Beckett - 16.2%
9. Jamie Moyer - 16.1%
10. Chris Jakubauskas - 15.9%
Players That Have a minimum of .190 Dominance and minimum of 14.5% Nibble
Javier Vazquez
Dan Haren
Roy Halladay
Scott Richmond
Koji Uehara
Zack Greinke
Ricky Romero
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Pitcher Analysis: First Pitch Strike % to Zone %
Certain pitchers will throw strike one at almost all cost, and then work off the zone. Some pitchers just seem to have a tough time finding the plate at all cost! I will take a quick glance at "First Pitch Strike % compared to pitches in the Zone%".
Braden Looper (62.3% to 51.6%) - 10.7% difference
Jeff Suppan (59% to 49.4%) - 9.6% difference
Dave Bush (60.3% to 51.5%) - 8.8% difference
Manny Parra (53.3% to 48.8%) - 4.5% difference
Yovani Gallardo (51.7% to 50.5%) - 1.2% difference
Note - Looper's #s do not include his start on June 9th.
Yo Gallardo's #s are a little worrisome, as he is the Brewer starter that consistently has the most difficult throwing strikes. Expect opposing teams to start being more patient with him to run his pitch count up and try to get him out of the game quicker.
I will not include the relief pitchers because of the small sample size, but I will let you know that Mark DiFelice has a difference of 25.7%! He is the ultimate nibbler, and batters should just attack the 1st pitch.
Braden Looper (62.3% to 51.6%) - 10.7% difference
Jeff Suppan (59% to 49.4%) - 9.6% difference
Dave Bush (60.3% to 51.5%) - 8.8% difference
Manny Parra (53.3% to 48.8%) - 4.5% difference
Yovani Gallardo (51.7% to 50.5%) - 1.2% difference
Note - Looper's #s do not include his start on June 9th.
Yo Gallardo's #s are a little worrisome, as he is the Brewer starter that consistently has the most difficult throwing strikes. Expect opposing teams to start being more patient with him to run his pitch count up and try to get him out of the game quicker.
I will not include the relief pitchers because of the small sample size, but I will let you know that Mark DiFelice has a difference of 25.7%! He is the ultimate nibbler, and batters should just attack the 1st pitch.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Brewer Hitters wOBA
wOBA is the most definitive single offensive statistic for hitters in my opinion. A .400+ rating posts a player in elite status, and anything under .340 is mediocre.
The Brewers rated as the following:
1. Ryan Braun (.433) - ranks 6th among all left fielders.
2. Mike Cameron (.426) - ranks 4th among all center fielders.
3. Prince Fielder (.405) - ranks 8th at 1B
4. Craig Counsell (.389) - ranks 8th at 3B
5. Rickie Weeks (.377) - ranks 8th at 2B
6. Bill Hall (.367) - ranks 12th at 3B
7. Corey Hart (.334) - ranks 28th at RF
8. JJ Hardy (.311) - ranks 20th at SS
9. Jason Kendall (.267) - ranks 26th at C
Craig Counsell will not have a .389 wOBA the entire season, but a platoon of him and Hall (and maybe even Gamel) could provide a solid combination at third base for the Brewers. I assumed that Weeks had a higher wOBA before I checked the numbers -- he is having a breakout year, but is not in the Top 5 at his position yet. Corey Hart and JJ Hardy will improve as the season goes along, but Jason Kendall has been on a steep offensive decline for some time now -- where is Angel Salome?
The Brewers rated as the following:
1. Ryan Braun (.433) - ranks 6th among all left fielders.
2. Mike Cameron (.426) - ranks 4th among all center fielders.
3. Prince Fielder (.405) - ranks 8th at 1B
4. Craig Counsell (.389) - ranks 8th at 3B
5. Rickie Weeks (.377) - ranks 8th at 2B
6. Bill Hall (.367) - ranks 12th at 3B
7. Corey Hart (.334) - ranks 28th at RF
8. JJ Hardy (.311) - ranks 20th at SS
9. Jason Kendall (.267) - ranks 26th at C
Craig Counsell will not have a .389 wOBA the entire season, but a platoon of him and Hall (and maybe even Gamel) could provide a solid combination at third base for the Brewers. I assumed that Weeks had a higher wOBA before I checked the numbers -- he is having a breakout year, but is not in the Top 5 at his position yet. Corey Hart and JJ Hardy will improve as the season goes along, but Jason Kendall has been on a steep offensive decline for some time now -- where is Angel Salome?
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Brewers vs Cubs - Sunday Pitching Preview
Jeff Suppan (2-2, 5.68 era) with a Dominance Rating of .077 will take the hill for the Brewers as they enter the final game of the three game set against the Chicago Cubs. Suppan has been a goat in the eyes of the Brewer fans for the last couple years after signing a big four year contract. He has seen his BB/9 increase in each of the the past three years, his K/BB decrease, and his fastball velocity decrease. He was paid to be a workhorse for the Brewers, so his expectation is that he will start pitching more than his slightly higher than 5 innings per game average he is throwing right now. Suppan will rely on his fastball, slider, change, and curve. He is hitting the strike zone with success in his first pitch, but isn't getting batters to chase pitches outside of the zone.
Sean Marshall (0-2, 4.15 era) is a 6-7 lefty that comes into the game with a Dominance Rating of .145. He is a groundball pitcher that doesn't throw as hard or strike out as many as you would think with his size. His fastball velocity is averaging 86 mph this season, and he has a 5.54 K/9 ratio. He relies on his cutter, curve, and fastball -- but will mix in the rare change and slider a few times per game. He has thrown strike one about 60% of the time this season, and has gotten batters to chase 29% of pitches off of the plate.
Overview:
*Sean Marshall is the better pitcher, but he is a lefty and the Brewers enjoy hitting against LHPs.
*Suppan will have to reduce the # walks he allows.
*This could be an offensive explosion -- bet the OVER if you are in Vegas!
Sean Marshall (0-2, 4.15 era) is a 6-7 lefty that comes into the game with a Dominance Rating of .145. He is a groundball pitcher that doesn't throw as hard or strike out as many as you would think with his size. His fastball velocity is averaging 86 mph this season, and he has a 5.54 K/9 ratio. He relies on his cutter, curve, and fastball -- but will mix in the rare change and slider a few times per game. He has thrown strike one about 60% of the time this season, and has gotten batters to chase 29% of pitches off of the plate.
Overview:
*Sean Marshall is the better pitcher, but he is a lefty and the Brewers enjoy hitting against LHPs.
*Suppan will have to reduce the # walks he allows.
*This could be an offensive explosion -- bet the OVER if you are in Vegas!
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