I adjusted the formula some for "Pitching Dominance" the average pitcher with a minimum of 40 innings will have a rating of .136.
Top 10 Pitching Dominance
1. Rich Harden - .283 (contact rate and O-Swing% get him the #1 ratings, his F-Strike% is horrible)
2. Javier Vazquez - .271
3. Dan Haren - .252
4. Johan Santana - .247
5. Chad Billingsle - .244
6. Felix Hernandez - .240
7. Scott Richmond - .234
8. Roy Halladay - .234
9. Ryan Dempster - .233
10. Koji Uehara - .226
Top 10 Nibble Rating
1. Randy Wells - 20.6%
2. Dan Haren - 19.5%
3. Glen Perkins - 18.9%
4. Javier Vazquez - 18.7%
5. Roy Halladay - 18.0%
6. Andy Pettitte - 17.7%
7. Carlos Zambrano - 17.0%
8. Josh Beckett - 16.2%
9. Jamie Moyer - 16.1%
10. Chris Jakubauskas - 15.9%
Players That Have a minimum of .190 Dominance and minimum of 14.5% Nibble
Javier Vazquez
Dan Haren
Roy Halladay
Scott Richmond
Koji Uehara
Zack Greinke
Ricky Romero
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Pitcher Analysis: First Pitch Strike % to Zone %
Certain pitchers will throw strike one at almost all cost, and then work off the zone. Some pitchers just seem to have a tough time finding the plate at all cost! I will take a quick glance at "First Pitch Strike % compared to pitches in the Zone%".
Braden Looper (62.3% to 51.6%) - 10.7% difference
Jeff Suppan (59% to 49.4%) - 9.6% difference
Dave Bush (60.3% to 51.5%) - 8.8% difference
Manny Parra (53.3% to 48.8%) - 4.5% difference
Yovani Gallardo (51.7% to 50.5%) - 1.2% difference
Note - Looper's #s do not include his start on June 9th.
Yo Gallardo's #s are a little worrisome, as he is the Brewer starter that consistently has the most difficult throwing strikes. Expect opposing teams to start being more patient with him to run his pitch count up and try to get him out of the game quicker.
I will not include the relief pitchers because of the small sample size, but I will let you know that Mark DiFelice has a difference of 25.7%! He is the ultimate nibbler, and batters should just attack the 1st pitch.
Braden Looper (62.3% to 51.6%) - 10.7% difference
Jeff Suppan (59% to 49.4%) - 9.6% difference
Dave Bush (60.3% to 51.5%) - 8.8% difference
Manny Parra (53.3% to 48.8%) - 4.5% difference
Yovani Gallardo (51.7% to 50.5%) - 1.2% difference
Note - Looper's #s do not include his start on June 9th.
Yo Gallardo's #s are a little worrisome, as he is the Brewer starter that consistently has the most difficult throwing strikes. Expect opposing teams to start being more patient with him to run his pitch count up and try to get him out of the game quicker.
I will not include the relief pitchers because of the small sample size, but I will let you know that Mark DiFelice has a difference of 25.7%! He is the ultimate nibbler, and batters should just attack the 1st pitch.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Brewer Hitters wOBA
wOBA is the most definitive single offensive statistic for hitters in my opinion. A .400+ rating posts a player in elite status, and anything under .340 is mediocre.
The Brewers rated as the following:
1. Ryan Braun (.433) - ranks 6th among all left fielders.
2. Mike Cameron (.426) - ranks 4th among all center fielders.
3. Prince Fielder (.405) - ranks 8th at 1B
4. Craig Counsell (.389) - ranks 8th at 3B
5. Rickie Weeks (.377) - ranks 8th at 2B
6. Bill Hall (.367) - ranks 12th at 3B
7. Corey Hart (.334) - ranks 28th at RF
8. JJ Hardy (.311) - ranks 20th at SS
9. Jason Kendall (.267) - ranks 26th at C
Craig Counsell will not have a .389 wOBA the entire season, but a platoon of him and Hall (and maybe even Gamel) could provide a solid combination at third base for the Brewers. I assumed that Weeks had a higher wOBA before I checked the numbers -- he is having a breakout year, but is not in the Top 5 at his position yet. Corey Hart and JJ Hardy will improve as the season goes along, but Jason Kendall has been on a steep offensive decline for some time now -- where is Angel Salome?
The Brewers rated as the following:
1. Ryan Braun (.433) - ranks 6th among all left fielders.
2. Mike Cameron (.426) - ranks 4th among all center fielders.
3. Prince Fielder (.405) - ranks 8th at 1B
4. Craig Counsell (.389) - ranks 8th at 3B
5. Rickie Weeks (.377) - ranks 8th at 2B
6. Bill Hall (.367) - ranks 12th at 3B
7. Corey Hart (.334) - ranks 28th at RF
8. JJ Hardy (.311) - ranks 20th at SS
9. Jason Kendall (.267) - ranks 26th at C
Craig Counsell will not have a .389 wOBA the entire season, but a platoon of him and Hall (and maybe even Gamel) could provide a solid combination at third base for the Brewers. I assumed that Weeks had a higher wOBA before I checked the numbers -- he is having a breakout year, but is not in the Top 5 at his position yet. Corey Hart and JJ Hardy will improve as the season goes along, but Jason Kendall has been on a steep offensive decline for some time now -- where is Angel Salome?
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Brewers vs Cubs - Sunday Pitching Preview
Jeff Suppan (2-2, 5.68 era) with a Dominance Rating of .077 will take the hill for the Brewers as they enter the final game of the three game set against the Chicago Cubs. Suppan has been a goat in the eyes of the Brewer fans for the last couple years after signing a big four year contract. He has seen his BB/9 increase in each of the the past three years, his K/BB decrease, and his fastball velocity decrease. He was paid to be a workhorse for the Brewers, so his expectation is that he will start pitching more than his slightly higher than 5 innings per game average he is throwing right now. Suppan will rely on his fastball, slider, change, and curve. He is hitting the strike zone with success in his first pitch, but isn't getting batters to chase pitches outside of the zone.
Sean Marshall (0-2, 4.15 era) is a 6-7 lefty that comes into the game with a Dominance Rating of .145. He is a groundball pitcher that doesn't throw as hard or strike out as many as you would think with his size. His fastball velocity is averaging 86 mph this season, and he has a 5.54 K/9 ratio. He relies on his cutter, curve, and fastball -- but will mix in the rare change and slider a few times per game. He has thrown strike one about 60% of the time this season, and has gotten batters to chase 29% of pitches off of the plate.
Overview:
*Sean Marshall is the better pitcher, but he is a lefty and the Brewers enjoy hitting against LHPs.
*Suppan will have to reduce the # walks he allows.
*This could be an offensive explosion -- bet the OVER if you are in Vegas!
Sean Marshall (0-2, 4.15 era) is a 6-7 lefty that comes into the game with a Dominance Rating of .145. He is a groundball pitcher that doesn't throw as hard or strike out as many as you would think with his size. His fastball velocity is averaging 86 mph this season, and he has a 5.54 K/9 ratio. He relies on his cutter, curve, and fastball -- but will mix in the rare change and slider a few times per game. He has thrown strike one about 60% of the time this season, and has gotten batters to chase 29% of pitches off of the plate.
Overview:
*Sean Marshall is the better pitcher, but he is a lefty and the Brewers enjoy hitting against LHPs.
*Suppan will have to reduce the # walks he allows.
*This could be an offensive explosion -- bet the OVER if you are in Vegas!
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Brewers vs Cubs @ Miller Park (Saturday)
Ryan Dempster (2-1, 4.86 era) will face Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 3.02 era) @ Miller Park with a start time of 6:05 CST.
Ryan Dempster brings a .264 Dominance Rating in to the game. Dempster is entering his 2nd year as a starting pitcher, after being converted from a starter to a closer. Historically he is a groundball pitcher, but has been neutral so far this season. He keeps the ball in the yard, allowing a fewer than 10% of flyballs to leave for homeruns in 5 of the past 6 seasons. He is a fastball, slider, splitter pitcher - who's FB averages 90 mph.
Yovani Gallardo has a .117 Dominance Rating coming into the game against the division rivals. Yo is inducing more groundballs this season, but is historically a neutral pitcher in his brief career in the bigs. He, like Dempster, is a sub 10% HR/FB pitcher. Gallardo relies in his fastball and curve, but will mix in a change and slider. His heater averages 91 mph.
Keys for success:
*Gallardo must get his 1st pitch over the strike zone more often than 50%.
*Brewer hitters must attack Dempsters 1st pitch (which is thrown for a strike 61% of the time)
*If they fall behind in the count Dempster will work outside of the zone and the Brewers must not chase.
Ryan Dempster brings a .264 Dominance Rating in to the game. Dempster is entering his 2nd year as a starting pitcher, after being converted from a starter to a closer. Historically he is a groundball pitcher, but has been neutral so far this season. He keeps the ball in the yard, allowing a fewer than 10% of flyballs to leave for homeruns in 5 of the past 6 seasons. He is a fastball, slider, splitter pitcher - who's FB averages 90 mph.
Yovani Gallardo has a .117 Dominance Rating coming into the game against the division rivals. Yo is inducing more groundballs this season, but is historically a neutral pitcher in his brief career in the bigs. He, like Dempster, is a sub 10% HR/FB pitcher. Gallardo relies in his fastball and curve, but will mix in a change and slider. His heater averages 91 mph.
Keys for success:
*Gallardo must get his 1st pitch over the strike zone more often than 50%.
*Brewer hitters must attack Dempsters 1st pitch (which is thrown for a strike 61% of the time)
*If they fall behind in the count Dempster will work outside of the zone and the Brewers must not chase.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Brewers SP Dominance Ratings
The Brewer starting pitchers ranked the following way according to Dominance Ratings (See previous posts for explanation of the rating).
Braden Looper - .142 Dominance - He has been a pleasant surprise and has proven to be one of their top starters instead of the back of the rotation filler he was signed to be.
Yovani Gallardo - .115 Dominance - The only drawback to Yo is that he is pitching from behind way too often because he is only getting his 1st pitch thrown across the plate for a strike in 49.4% of plate appearances.
Manny Parra - .088 Dominance - He has the same contact rate as Yo (about 80%), but gets his 1st pitch over for a strike even less and doesn't get batters to chase as much because of it.
Dave Bush - .086 Dominance - He gets his 1st pitch over, but like Parra doesn't get more than league average to chase and is most hittable of the starters.
Jeff Suppan - .077 Dominance - Hittable, but throws his 1st pitch for a strike. Gets far below league average to chase pitches outside the zone.
Braden Looper - .142 Dominance - He has been a pleasant surprise and has proven to be one of their top starters instead of the back of the rotation filler he was signed to be.
Yovani Gallardo - .115 Dominance - The only drawback to Yo is that he is pitching from behind way too often because he is only getting his 1st pitch thrown across the plate for a strike in 49.4% of plate appearances.
Manny Parra - .088 Dominance - He has the same contact rate as Yo (about 80%), but gets his 1st pitch over for a strike even less and doesn't get batters to chase as much because of it.
Dave Bush - .086 Dominance - He gets his 1st pitch over, but like Parra doesn't get more than league average to chase and is most hittable of the starters.
Jeff Suppan - .077 Dominance - Hittable, but throws his 1st pitch for a strike. Gets far below league average to chase pitches outside the zone.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Mark DiFelice
I was at the game in Houston when Mark DeFelice came into the game and got everyone laughing with his 84-86 mph fastball. I am not sure how he does it, but something about DiFelice fools hitters enough to baffle them at the plate. Just looking at his short career numbers you would assume that he is a flame throwing closer: 2.27 era, 9.24 K/9, 4.33 K/BB, and a .232 average against.
Looking at his pitch selection, you notice that he relies on his cutter which he throws 81% of the time at 82.7 mph on average. He will also mix in a chance and fastball, but they are only a few mph slower and faster than his cutter, so he isn't fooling hitters on speed. I have not fouled around with Pitch F/X, but I assume that the cutter really moves. He has gotten batters to chase 44.6% of balls out of the zone this year, and relies on the strategy of pound the zone on the 1st pitch (70% 1st pitch K) and then avoid the plate (43.2% of pitches in the zone). It may not take long before batters start keying in on the 1st pitch strike, but for now DeFelice continues to be one of the most intriguing statistical freaks in the game.
Looking at his pitch selection, you notice that he relies on his cutter which he throws 81% of the time at 82.7 mph on average. He will also mix in a chance and fastball, but they are only a few mph slower and faster than his cutter, so he isn't fooling hitters on speed. I have not fouled around with Pitch F/X, but I assume that the cutter really moves. He has gotten batters to chase 44.6% of balls out of the zone this year, and relies on the strategy of pound the zone on the 1st pitch (70% 1st pitch K) and then avoid the plate (43.2% of pitches in the zone). It may not take long before batters start keying in on the 1st pitch strike, but for now DeFelice continues to be one of the most intriguing statistical freaks in the game.
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