Brewers Baseball Blog

What Is Wrong With Greinke?

2011-07-04T06:39:00.000-05:00

Zack Greinke was acquired during the off-season in one of the blockbuster trades, and was expected to be the ace for the Milwaukee Brewers as they marched toward the playoffs in 2011. To say that things haven't be perfect would be an understatement! Greinke hurt himelf during a pick-up basketball game in the off-season and had his Spring Training cut short, and his Brewers regular season debut delayed. On the 4th of July he sits with a 7-3 record, and a 5.66 ERA.

Greinke's fastball is clocking in a full mph less than last season, and his slider is approximately 1.5 mph slower than last season. The decrease in velocity could be related to the injury he suffered or a slower radar gun at Miller Park. The dip in speed has turned his fastball into a below average pitch, and while his slider is still ranked as his best pitch, it is not nearly as dominant as it has been the previous three seasons.

Another concern is that he has found the strike zone with a career worst 40.3% of his pitches. This could be a result of a change of philosophy or simply lack of command. Greinke is still getting a strike on the first pitch of each plate appearance at a clip of 61.9% (which is right on career average), so a change of philosophy seems likely.

Greinke is giving up a career high 23.7% line drives on balls put in play. Add the line drives to a poor Brewers defense and it certainly makes for some long frustrating innings. Another alarming balls put in play stat is that 15.4% of fly balls have left as home runs. While a bump in HR/FB% was expected with the move to Miller Park, nobody expected that it would double and he would be one of the most homer friendly pitchers.

What are the reasons to think that Greinke might be in for a huge second half of the season? Lets start with a league worst 55% of batters "Left on Base" percentage (which is the worst in MLB). It is simply an unsustainable stat that Greinke allows so many runners to score. Again the Brewers defense isn't helping his cause on many occasions, but it simply won't be that bad the entire season.

Another reason is that he is has a career best 6.36 K/BB ratio, which has resulted in a career best 2.95 FIP and 2.15 xFIP. Many statisticians believe that FIP and xFIP are a better true indicator of how a pitcher is truly performing than ERA. Greinke also has a career high 11.2% swing strike percentage, this could be a result of his a career high "outside the zone swinging strike" percentage, and batters may learn to force him to throw more strikes (ala Yovani Gallardo).

I have to believe that Greinke will have a dominate second half of the season, but this might be me as a Brewers fan wanting it to happen. The decrease in velocity is a cause for concern, but his FIP and xFIP are outstanding. He has been an interesting case this season with many career high marks both good and bad. For the Milwaukee Brewers to make the playoffs in 2011 he will have anchor down the staff and be the player that the Brewers give some very nice prospects for.

Scouting Report - Brett Myers - April 23, 2011

2011-04-23T04:31:00.000-05:00

Brett Myers (1-0, 2.39, 4.78 k/9) takes the hill for the Houston Astros this evening, who are coming off a loss to the Brewers on Saturday evening. Myers is coming off the best season in his career (+4 WAR) in 2010, and his 2011 traditional stats look good. However, if you look inside those #'s you see that he has been extremely lucky so far in 2011. He is currently stranding 91.2% of all runners that reach base, he is giving up a career high percentage of fly balls, his strikeout per nine has decreased dramatically, and most telling his fastball velocity is down about 1.5 mph from last year. His FIP and xFIP currently stand at 4.84 and 4.63 respectively on the season, which is much higher than his current 2.39 ERA.

Myers relies on four pitches over the course of a game - fastball (43%), slider (27%), curve (22%), and change (8%). His fastball has never graded out as a positive pitch in any season of his career, and this season only his slider and change are rated as positive pitches. His curve has historically been his best pitches, but it is currently ranked as a negative pitch this season. He still tries to use it as his out pitch, but just hasn't been successful with it - thus the decrease in K/9. Myers will try to expand the strike zone early, but will through pitches in the zone if it doesn't expand early.

When you are most likely to see:
Fastball - 3-0 count (100%), 2-0 count (78%), 2-1 count (57%), 0-0 count (52%)
Slider - 3-2 count (39%), 1-0 count (38%), 3-1 count (36%), 0-1 count (33%)
Curve - 0-2 count (64%), 1-2 count (58%), 2-2 count (38%)
Change - 3-1 count (18%), 2-2 count (13%)

Prediction:
A hittable pitcher who has been giving up a ton of fly balls should be a good sight for the Brewer hitters tonight. Expect Shaun Marcum to get a lot of run support, and the Brewers to cruise to another victory.

Fantasy Baseball - Hitters To Buy

2010-07-09T09:31:00.001-05:00

A pretty simple way to determine which hitters should have a better second half of the 2010 season, find hitters with <.260 BABIP and >20 LD%. Here are four hitters that you should target during the All-Star Break.

1. Justin Smoak - First Baseman - Texas Rangers
.238 BABIP and 23.9 LD% are very good indicators that he will have a big second half of the season. Add in the fact that he plays in a good hitters park, and he has some pop. Go get this guy RIGHT NOW!

2. Yadier Molina - Catcher - St. Louis
One of the best defensive catchers in the game that has had terrible luck at the plate this year. .244 BABIP and a 20.6 LD%. Not going to be an elite catcher, but his second half numbers should help you unless you own one of the premier catchers.

3. Mark Teixeira - First Baseman - New York Yankees
It is hard to trade for middle of the line-up Yankees because their owners usually want to keep those valuable pieces. A .250 BABIP and 20.3 LD% during the first half, so expect him to be the most valuable Yankee during the second half of the season. Get him if you can!

4. Alcides Escobar - Shortstop - Milwaukee Brewers
A .268 BABIP and 20.2 LD%. While he isn't going to provide much pop, his real value is in his legs. With Ken Macha at the helm he won't run much (see the first half of the season), but Macha could be gone as soon as the All-Star Break and with Escobar getting on base more should get the green light to run.

Note - Escobar doesn't meet the <.260 BABIP, but SS are tough to find and his value will increase once Macha is gone.

Fantasy Pitchers To Sell

2010-07-07T11:10:00.000-05:00

As we get closer to the All-Star Break, here are a few SPs that you should sell now after having enjoyed a lucky first half by them.

1. Tim Hudson - His LD% to BABIP is normal, but is allowing allowing 10% of hits against him as LDs. His previous best was 16.5%. Hudson's K/BB is nothing special, and he is getting lucky by stranding 80% of runners of base. FIP and xFIP show him to be a low 4's ERA pitcher. Sell now when he is definitely at his peak value.

2. Jeff Niemann - His LD% to BABIP is a little out of whack (but not much), the real concern for Niemann is the 86% of runners LOB which is not sustainable. FIP and xFIP put him more as a high 3's to low 4's ERA pitcher.

3. Ted Lilly - With only 3 wins you would think that now might be the time to buy low on a proven SP, but stay away or sell while you can. His LD%-BABIP doesn't match, his K/BB is down from last year, and more importantly he has lost 1-2 mph off his fastball.

4. CJ Wilson - Before the 2010 season, Wilson had never pitched more than 73.2 innings in any major league season and hasn't been a starter since 2005. He made a nice transistion to a starter at the beginning of the 2010 season, but he is now reaching unexperienced innings and is liking to show the effect. His K/BB is nothing special, and he has been lucky only allowing 6.4% of flyballs to leave as home runs.

5. Trevor Cahill - The only real sticking point with Cahill is his LD-BABIP that don't match-up. A ground ball pitcher (like Hudson), but has a better K/BB ratio and a more realistic LOB%. He isn't a terrible option just don't expect him to continue to win at the rate he is now.

Scouting Report: Francisco Liriano

2010-06-23T14:28:00.000-05:00

Francisco Liriano (6-4, 2.98 era) will take the hill against the Brewers on Wednesday night. Liriano was once the top young SP in MLB, but was derailed by injuries, in 2010 it appears that he is back as a dominate force once again. Francisco is a fastball (50%), slider, and change pitcher. His fastball averages at 93.5 mph, so it is one of the tops in the league.

Early in the count he will throw mainly fastballs and change-ups, once he is past 2 pitches in the AB it is rare to see the change again. If Liriano gets ahead in the count then he will throw predominately sliders -- over 60% of his pitches are sliders when the batter has two strikes on him.

Side note: It looked as if Matt Lucroy was tipping Todd Coffey's pitches last night. Every time that Coffey was going to throw a fastball, Matt would swipe his right hand on the ground. Just something to look for in future games that Lucroy catches.

Scouting Report: Aaron Cook

2010-06-20T10:25:00.000-05:00

The Milwaukee Brewers face Aaron Cook (2w, 4l, 5.15era, 3.80k/9) on Sunday in a much needed win situation for the club. Cook is a serious ground ball pitchers, ranked #6 in MLB, with a 2.11 GB/FB ratio. He relies mainly on his fastball (81% of his pitches) and tries to locate it at the knees. He will occasionally through a a slider (11%) and curve (8%). He will throw the slider most often on 1-2 and 3-2 counts (22% of the time) and curve on 1-2 counts (24%).

Overall, Cook is a below average starter that the Brewers bats should be able to handle. They can sit on the fastball and hope they can find an elevated pitch to drive.

Scouting Report: Rich Harden

2010-06-11T07:55:00.000-05:00

The Brewers open a three game interleague series against Rich Harden tonight. Harden has evolved from a 3-4 pitch repertoire to scrapping his stuff and focusing only on the fastball and change. After having one of the best fastballs in MLB, it is surprising to see him sitting at a 90.8 average on the radar gun, after years of being in the 93-94 range. His current averages now are:

FB - 64% of pitches
CH - 36% of pitches

He only throws 52% of first pitches for strikes, and has only found the strike zone on 48% of his pitches. Harden clearly isn't the same as he is getting 7.9% of batters swinging and missing, after sitting at the 14-15% range for the previous portion of his career. As long as the Brewers are patient they should do very well against Rich Harden tonight.

Milwaukee Brewer Hitting Team Stats as of 5/16/2010

2010-05-16T11:56:00.000-05:00

Runs - The Brewers are 2nd in MLB with 197 runs (8 behind the New York Yankees) and #1 in the NL with a 1 run lead over the Philadelphia Phillies.

BB/K - The Brewers rank tied for 8th with a 0.53 BB/K ratio. They are tied for 3rd in the NL with the Colorado Rockies.

ISO - The Brewers rank 5th in ISO with a .179 rate. They are ranked 3rd in the NL only behind the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks.

wOBA - The Brewer rank 2nd in wOBA at .356, only behind the New York Yankees at .364, and rank 1st in the NL with the next closest team being the Philadelphia Phillies at .353.

O-Swing % - The Brewers rank 5th in Outside Swing Percentage at 24.9%, and are 3rd in the NL behind the Arizona Diamondbacks (23.4%) and the Atlanta Braves (24.2%).

5/10 - Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Preview: Tommy Hanson

2010-05-09T21:43:00.000-05:00

Tommy Hanson (6-6, 220) is a big young kid that can throw hard and has had a lot of success so far in his brief career. He is +7 wins, in only 27 career starts, but is 2-2 on the 2010 season. He averages over a strikeout per inning, and should have a big K day against the Brewers (who tend to strikeout more than the normal team). He throws a 93.6 mph fastball (60% of his pitches), slider (28%), and curve (11%).

His strategy is to pound the strike zone on the first pitch (62.6%) and then work around the corners. 73% of his first pitches are fastballs, and will really only show his curve if he has two strikes on a batter. When ahead in the count he will tend to use his slider more, so the Brewers will probably be looking to attack the first pitch fastball from Hanson.

2010: Gallardo Thru 4 Starts

2010-04-23T14:56:00.001-05:00

Yovani Gallardo has to be the ace for the Brewers and through four starts this season he has a 1-2 record and a 4.30 ERA (3.99 FIP). He recently signed a five year deal that will lock him in with the Brewers for awhile.

This season I am going to attempt to breakdown the starting pitchers of the Brewers more, as they are the key to the teams success in 2010.

First Pitch Strike Percentage
Yovani has had infrequent first pitch strike percentages -- 41%, 48%, 62%, and 60%. His last two outings were spectacular in this area, and if he can throw 60+ percent of first pitches for strikes he will be solid.

Strike Percentage
Teams have learned to "wait out" Yovani and get his pitch count up, but this year he is hit the strike zone more frequently at rates of 57%, 54%, 55%, and 59% through his first four games.

Pitch Selection - General
Four Seam Fastball - 59%, 53%, 62%, and 53%
Two Seam Fastball - 6%, 6%, 0%, 0%
Curveball - 20%, 18%, 27%, 23%
Changeup - 7%, 12%, 4%, 6%
Slider - 8%, 12%, 7%, 17%

Their is an obvious correlation between his first pitch strike% and how much he uses his curveball.

Pitch Selection Ahead In The Count
FB% when ahead in the count - 54%, 28%, 67%, 28%
OF% when ahead in the count - 46%, 72%, 33%, 72%

For whatever reason Yo decided to challenge the Nationals with fastball at a of 67% when ahead in the count, but threw a ton of off-speed pitches (as expected) against St. Louis and Pittsburgh when ahead in the count.

Pitch Selection Behind In The Count
FB% when behind in the count - 72%, 77%, 81%, 80%
OF% when behind in the count - 28%, 23%, 19%, 20%

Pretty logical #s across the board, when Gallardo is behind in the count he will throw fastballs at appoximately a 75% clip.

2010 Milwaukee Brewers - April Start

2010-03-29T12:01:00.001-05:00

As we are about a week from Opening Day 2010, I wanted to see which Brewers had a historically strong April. I realize that sample size is an issue, but it is what we have to base the history on. I am going to use Baseball References tOPS+ rating, with a # higher than 100 being above average, and a # lower than 100 being below average.

Rickie Weeks - 419 PA - 101 tOPS+
Carlos Gomez - 148 PA - 94 tOPS+
Ryan Braun - 215 PA - 84 tOPS+
Prince Fielder - 435 PA - 88 tOPS+
Jim Edmonds - 1138 PA - 109 tOPS+
Casey McGee - 8 PA - 24 tOPS+
Corey Hart - 273 PA - 106 tOPS+
Alcides Escobar - 0 PA - 0 tOPS+
Craig Counsell - 795 PA - 108 tOPS+
Gregg Zaun - 507 PA - 102 tOPS+

Only 3 players have over 500 plate appearances in April in their career (Edmonds, Counsell, and Zaun) and just once again proves how young this team is. Three players have 150 plate appearances or less in April in Alcides Escobar, Casey McGehee, and Carlos Gomez, so expect them to have some big butterflies to work their way through as each of them has questions they want to answer early in the 2010 season.

2010: Carlos Gomez

2010-03-28T08:38:00.000-05:00

Brewers traded shortstop J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins for center fielder Carlos Gomez during the 2009-2010 off-season. In Gomez they got a player that is slightly younger, more payroll friendly (cheap), plays an excellent center field, and has blazing speed. Baseball America named him the New York Mets #3 prospect in 2007, naming him the farms fastest runner, best athlete, best defensive outfielder, and best outfield arm, but he has failed to live up to the hype that was around him a few short years ago. At the age of 24 he still has time to live up to his full potential, but it may turn out that he is a reserve outfielder at best.

Plate Discipline:
Gomez has swung at 51.7% of pitches that he has seen during his career, and that percentage will come down to the mid-to-low 40's with Ken Macha managing the Brewers. Gomez has swung better judgement by reducing the amount he has swung at outside pitches over the last few years from 41.4% in 2007 to 29.% in 2009 (which is still a little higher than league average). He has an average contact rate with pitches that are in the zone, but has a lower than normal contact rate with all pitches -- this leads me to believe that if he continues to improve his eye that his batting average should improve slightly.

Power:
Gomez has shown a slight improvement in his power over the course of three years in the big leagues - taking his ISO from .072 in 2007, to .102 in 2008, to .108 in 2009. His 2009 ISO is still well below the league average of .155. Teams have adjusted to Gomez's lack of power and have started to take away his ability to successfully bunt for a hit dropping his successful bunt percentage from 45.5% in 2008 to 22.7% in 2009. He led the league with 30 bunt hits in 2008, but failed to make the

Speed:
Gomez has great speed and can cause a disruption on the base paths when he gets on base. He stole 33 bases in 44 attempts in 2008, but his success rate dropped in 2009 when he stole 14 bases in 21 attempts. The club will most likely work with Gomez on getting a better jump and should utilize his speed more in 2010. His real speed will show when he hits a ball into the gap and burns around the bases for a triple.

How Pitchers Attack Gomez:
Pitchers are not afraid of Gomez and will throw 65% of first pitches for strikes when they face him. After that they continue to pound the strike zone, and will continue to do so until he shows more power at the plate. Gomez hasn't shown to be positive against any single pitch over his career, but did hit opponents slider exceptionally well in the 2009 season for the Twins.

Defense:
Carlos Gomez will be one of the, if not the top, defensive center fielder in the National League in 2010. He has great range, and has a top arm. Mike Cameron was a good defensive player for the Brewers the last couple seasons, but Gomez is even a little bit better in the field.

Overall:
Gomez defense and speed are the biggest positives to his game, but he will not be of much value with a bat in his hands unless he can learn to get on base via the walk. With Jim Edmonds having a good spring, and wanting to play close to full time, it would be surprising to see Gomez to start more than 135 games. Brewer fans will probably fall in love with his glove and legs, but will be completely frustrated watching him at the plate.

Spring Training Stats - 2010

2010-03-19T14:15:00.000-05:00

I don't put much stock into Spring Training stats, but here are a few things of note to see through March 19.

13 - The # of hits that Alcides Escobar has so far. He is batting .406, and has 3 doubles and a home run.

.485 - Rickie Weeks OBP. He has 7 walks and 8 strikeouts. It looks as if he will work the count for as long as possible.

2 - The # of home runs by Ryan Braun and Corey Hart (tied for the team league).

0/8 - The # of BB (zero) and K (eight) for Corey Hart. Don't expect a rebound if he can't improve his BB/K ratio.

7 - The # of stolen bases for Carlos Gomez so far. The impressive thing is that he has had 8 singles and 1 walk, and has 7 SB for a nice 1B+BB/SB ratio.

Brewers Off-Season (Brief Preview)

2009-10-24T11:54:00.002-05:00

The Brewers enter the off-season of a disappointing season to some, but probably about where honest expectations placed them. They no doubt were hurt by losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, even with Yovanni Gallardo stepping up to fill an ace role. Prince Fielder had an exceptional season, along with Ryan Braun, but those are givens for the next decade of their careers. So the main question is, where do the Brewers look in the off-season?

Top Off-Season Stories To Follow:

1. Brewers Starting Rotation: It is Gallardo, and who else? Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan, and Braden Looper will probably fill roles. Manny Parra has the talent to step up to the #2 slot, but hasn't put it together. The Brewers will need to delegate resources to landing a solid #2 SP option (whether that is with cash or players).

2. Prince Fielder Trade Rumors: Brewer management has went on the record stating that they will not trade away Prince Fielder, but with Matt Gamel a better fit at 1B than 3B don't be surprised if the club finds a "trade they couldn't pass up" sending Fielder to another club for a solid SP.

3. JJ Hardy: Nobody has dropped quicker than Hardy, and with Escobar ready to take over at SS it is obvious to everyone that Hardy will be shopped. What isn't clear is what value Hardy has on the trade block.

4. Who will roam CF? Mike Cameron is a free agent, and will likely sign with another club. Are the Brewers willing to shift Corey Hart or Rickie Weeks over to center field or will they be looking to bring in another option?

5. Lead-off Hitter: Rickie Weeks was having a great season before it was cut short by injury. He is not a typical lead-off hitter, and would probably be better served to bat #2 or #5 in the order. Corey Hart doesn't have the OBP to be the man either. Felipe Lopez, who is a free agent, had a .383 OBP last season but only has a .338 over his career (he is not a lead-off hitter either).

Claudio Vargas: Second Tour of Duty

2009-07-31T13:57:00.003-05:00

A minor deal for the Brewers early on the Trade Deadline Day as they move 29 year old career minor leaguers Vinny Rottino to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher Claudio Vargas. Vargas could fill in a back end of the rotation slot for the Brewers on a temporary basis, but could easily just be a mop-up guy as well. Either way the expectations for Vargas should be extremely low.

July 16, 2009 - Reds vs Brewers Preview

2009-07-16T09:42:00.002-05:00

Homer Bailey (1-0, 5.16, 6.35 K/9) takes the hill for the Cincinnati Reds as they try to fight back into the NL Central race against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Bailey was once a top pitching prospect in MLB, but has never lived up to his potential as he has never been able to consistently find the strike zone. He started the year in AAA and dominated the hitters and shown good control (3.04 K/BB), but has not be able to translate the minor league success to the majors again this season.

Bailey has consistently been a ground ball pitcher, but has given up more flyballs than ground balls in his brief stint in the bigs in 2009. His fastball averages at 93.7 mph, and he relies on it 67% of the time. He will also throw a slider (17%), curve (7%), splitter (6.5%), and change (2.5%). His fastball, slider, curve, and change have graded out as plus pitches this season, but all pitches are graded as negatives for his career.

Bailey struggles to find the strike zone on his first pitch (48.5%) and only finds the strike zone on 51.2% of his pitches. Basically he has fallen behind hitters early and has been forced to throw strikes which obviously hasn't produced good results. Batters have not chased pitches off the zone, only 16% of the time.

OVERVIEW
The Brewer hitters will need to show patience, something that they have done under manager Ken Macha, and take advantage of Bailey being forced to throw strikes when he is behind in the count. This is a good series for the Brewers to open the second half of the season with as they get the Reds without Jay Bruce, and should be able to take at least 3 of the 4 games.

Dominance and Nibble Ratings: MLB Pitchers

2009-06-17T13:06:00.003-05:00

I adjusted the formula some for "Pitching Dominance" the average pitcher with a minimum of 40 innings will have a rating of .136.

Top 10 Pitching Dominance
1. Rich Harden - .283 (contact rate and O-Swing% get him the #1 ratings, his F-Strike% is horrible)
2. Javier Vazquez - .271
3. Dan Haren - .252
4. Johan Santana - .247
5. Chad Billingsle - .244
6. Felix Hernandez - .240
7. Scott Richmond - .234
8. Roy Halladay - .234
9. Ryan Dempster - .233
10. Koji Uehara - .226

Top 10 Nibble Rating
1. Randy Wells - 20.6%
2. Dan Haren - 19.5%
3. Glen Perkins - 18.9%
4. Javier Vazquez - 18.7%
5. Roy Halladay - 18.0%
6. Andy Pettitte - 17.7%
7. Carlos Zambrano - 17.0%
8. Josh Beckett - 16.2%
9. Jamie Moyer - 16.1%
10. Chris Jakubauskas - 15.9%

Players That Have a minimum of .190 Dominance and minimum of 14.5% Nibble
Javier Vazquez
Dan Haren
Roy Halladay
Scott Richmond
Koji Uehara
Zack Greinke
Ricky Romero

Pitcher Analysis: First Pitch Strike % to Zone %

2009-06-09T22:14:00.002-05:00

Certain pitchers will throw strike one at almost all cost, and then work off the zone. Some pitchers just seem to have a tough time finding the plate at all cost! I will take a quick glance at "First Pitch Strike % compared to pitches in the Zone%".

Braden Looper (62.3% to 51.6%) - 10.7% difference
Jeff Suppan (59% to 49.4%) - 9.6% difference
Dave Bush (60.3% to 51.5%) - 8.8% difference
Manny Parra (53.3% to 48.8%) - 4.5% difference
Yovani Gallardo (51.7% to 50.5%) - 1.2% difference

Note - Looper's #s do not include his start on June 9th.

Yo Gallardo's #s are a little worrisome, as he is the Brewer starter that consistently has the most difficult throwing strikes. Expect opposing teams to start being more patient with him to run his pitch count up and try to get him out of the game quicker.

I will not include the relief pitchers because of the small sample size, but I will let you know that Mark DiFelice has a difference of 25.7%! He is the ultimate nibbler, and batters should just attack the 1st pitch.

Brewer Hitters wOBA

2009-05-16T19:04:00.003-05:00

wOBA is the most definitive single offensive statistic for hitters in my opinion. A .400+ rating posts a player in elite status, and anything under .340 is mediocre.

The Brewers rated as the following:
1. Ryan Braun (.433) - ranks 6th among all left fielders.
2. Mike Cameron (.426) - ranks 4th among all center fielders.
3. Prince Fielder (.405) - ranks 8th at 1B
4. Craig Counsell (.389) - ranks 8th at 3B
5. Rickie Weeks (.377) - ranks 8th at 2B
6. Bill Hall (.367) - ranks 12th at 3B
7. Corey Hart (.334) - ranks 28th at RF
8. JJ Hardy (.311) - ranks 20th at SS
9. Jason Kendall (.267) - ranks 26th at C

Craig Counsell will not have a .389 wOBA the entire season, but a platoon of him and Hall (and maybe even Gamel) could provide a solid combination at third base for the Brewers. I assumed that Weeks had a higher wOBA before I checked the numbers -- he is having a breakout year, but is not in the Top 5 at his position yet. Corey Hart and JJ Hardy will improve as the season goes along, but Jason Kendall has been on a steep offensive decline for some time now -- where is Angel Salome?

Brewers vs Cubs - Sunday Pitching Preview

2009-05-10T05:01:00.003-05:00

Jeff Suppan (2-2, 5.68 era) with a Dominance Rating of .077 will take the hill for the Brewers as they enter the final game of the three game set against the Chicago Cubs. Suppan has been a goat in the eyes of the Brewer fans for the last couple years after signing a big four year contract. He has seen his BB/9 increase in each of the the past three years, his K/BB decrease, and his fastball velocity decrease. He was paid to be a workhorse for the Brewers, so his expectation is that he will start pitching more than his slightly higher than 5 innings per game average he is throwing right now. Suppan will rely on his fastball, slider, change, and curve. He is hitting the strike zone with success in his first pitch, but isn't getting batters to chase pitches outside of the zone.

Sean Marshall (0-2, 4.15 era) is a 6-7 lefty that comes into the game with a Dominance Rating of .145. He is a groundball pitcher that doesn't throw as hard or strike out as many as you would think with his size. His fastball velocity is averaging 86 mph this season, and he has a 5.54 K/9 ratio. He relies on his cutter, curve, and fastball -- but will mix in the rare change and slider a few times per game. He has thrown strike one about 60% of the time this season, and has gotten batters to chase 29% of pitches off of the plate.

Overview:
*Sean Marshall is the better pitcher, but he is a lefty and the Brewers enjoy hitting against LHPs.
*Suppan will have to reduce the # walks he allows.
*This could be an offensive explosion -- bet the OVER if you are in Vegas!

Brewers vs Cubs @ Miller Park (Saturday)

2009-05-09T05:48:00.000-05:00

Ryan Dempster (2-1, 4.86 era) will face Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 3.02 era) @ Miller Park with a start time of 6:05 CST.

Ryan Dempster brings a .264 Dominance Rating in to the game. Dempster is entering his 2nd year as a starting pitcher, after being converted from a starter to a closer. Historically he is a groundball pitcher, but has been neutral so far this season. He keeps the ball in the yard, allowing a fewer than 10% of flyballs to leave for homeruns in 5 of the past 6 seasons. He is a fastball, slider, splitter pitcher - who's FB averages 90 mph.

Yovani Gallardo has a .117 Dominance Rating coming into the game against the division rivals. Yo is inducing more groundballs this season, but is historically a neutral pitcher in his brief career in the bigs. He, like Dempster, is a sub 10% HR/FB pitcher. Gallardo relies in his fastball and curve, but will mix in a change and slider. His heater averages 91 mph.

Keys for success:
*Gallardo must get his 1st pitch over the strike zone more often than 50%.
*Brewer hitters must attack Dempsters 1st pitch (which is thrown for a strike 61% of the time)
*If they fall behind in the count Dempster will work outside of the zone and the Brewers must not chase.

Brewers SP Dominance Ratings

2009-05-06T07:23:00.000-05:00

The Brewer starting pitchers ranked the following way according to Dominance Ratings (See previous posts for explanation of the rating).

Braden Looper - .142 Dominance - He has been a pleasant surprise and has proven to be one of their top starters instead of the back of the rotation filler he was signed to be.

Yovani Gallardo - .115 Dominance - The only drawback to Yo is that he is pitching from behind way too often because he is only getting his 1st pitch thrown across the plate for a strike in 49.4% of plate appearances.

Manny Parra - .088 Dominance - He has the same contact rate as Yo (about 80%), but gets his 1st pitch over for a strike even less and doesn't get batters to chase as much because of it.

Dave Bush - .086 Dominance - He gets his 1st pitch over, but like Parra doesn't get more than league average to chase and is most hittable of the starters.

Jeff Suppan - .077 Dominance - Hittable, but throws his 1st pitch for a strike. Gets far below league average to chase pitches outside the zone.

Mark DiFelice

2009-05-05T07:40:00.002-05:00

I was at the game in Houston when Mark DeFelice came into the game and got everyone laughing with his 84-86 mph fastball. I am not sure how he does it, but something about DiFelice fools hitters enough to baffle them at the plate. Just looking at his short career numbers you would assume that he is a flame throwing closer: 2.27 era, 9.24 K/9, 4.33 K/BB, and a .232 average against.

Looking at his pitch selection, you notice that he relies on his cutter which he throws 81% of the time at 82.7 mph on average. He will also mix in a chance and fastball, but they are only a few mph slower and faster than his cutter, so he isn't fooling hitters on speed. I have not fouled around with Pitch F/X, but I assume that the cutter really moves. He has gotten batters to chase 44.6% of balls out of the zone this year, and relies on the strategy of pound the zone on the 1st pitch (70% 1st pitch K) and then avoid the plate (43.2% of pitches in the zone). It may not take long before batters start keying in on the 1st pitch strike, but for now DeFelice continues to be one of the most intriguing statistical freaks in the game.

Brewers Patient Style at the Plate

2009-05-03T07:56:00.003-05:00

Many Brewer fans have been disappointed with the Brewers free swinging approach in recent seasons, but with new manager Ken Macha in charge the squad has shown more discipline at the plate. The problem comes that it has not turned into more runs per game (albeit in a small sample size)

	O-Swing%	Wins	Loses	Runs	Runs/Game
2005	.206	81	81	726	4.48
2006	.234	75	87	730	4.51
2007	.260	83	79	801	4.94
2008	.259	90	72	750	4.63
2009	.226	12	12	102	4.25

Will the Brewers continue to be patient at the plate if their runs per game sits in the low 4's, or will they revert back to the hackers that came through the minor league system? On a side note, the O-Swing% numbers for the entire MLB were lower than normal data, so I am guessing that you could bump another .040 to that percentage to make it more accurate.

Brewer Bat Plate Discipline

2009-04-19T07:00:00.000-05:00

Ken Macha managed under the "patience" system that the Oakland Athletics employed, and still employ. The theory is to take pitches to get to the other teams bullpen quicker, and to also be more selective about what pitches you go after. The Brewers have been one of the most impatient teams at the plate in recent years, but they seem to have adjusted to patient style of play.

2009 compared to 2008
*Player*	*O-Swing%*	*Z-Swing%*	*Swing%*	*O-Contact%*	*Z-Contact%*	*Contact%*	*Zone%*	*F-Strike%*
Ryan Braun	-8.40%	-0.90%	-7.00%	1.90%	0.00%	0.80%	-5.90%	3.20%
Prince Fielder	-4.60%	-3.30%	-6.00%	-6.50%	-3.20%	-4.70%	-4.70%	-3.60%
Corey Hart	-1.70%	-11.50%	-10.70%	-17.50%	3.00%	-8.90%	-11.40%	-5.30%
Mike Cameron	1.30%	-7.30%	-6.20%	21.40%	10.90%	10.70%	-8.40%	-15.40%
Rickie Weeks	13.90%	-0.50%	7.30%	-2.30%	-3.90%	-6.00%	3.10%	-1.10%
JJ Hardy	-4.70%	-6.80%	-6.20%	3.20%	4.10%	4.20%	-1.00%	-0.70%
Jason Kendall	-0.10%	10.60%	-0.20%	-11.60%	2.20%	-3.10%	-14.00%	-16.20%
Bill Hall	-2.40%	-2.60%	-3.80%	-10.50%	-7.80%	-9.00%	-3.40%	-2.90%

As you can see from the data, the majority of Brewers are swinging less this season, led by Corey Hart's 10.7% reduction in swings. As a team they are going after fewer pitches off the plate, with the lone exception being Rickie Weeks who is chasing almost 14% more balls out of the zone. Another point of interest is Mike Cameron and Jason Kendall are both seeing fewer first pitch strikes by a margin of 15.4% and 16.2% respectively. Corey Hart is seeing fewer pitches in the zone, as is Jason Kendall -- which might explain the reduction of swings from Hart, but also does not indicate that Kendall has adjusted yet (his swing% is only down 0.2%).

Obviously it is still early in the season, but it should be interesting to see how the Brewer hitters play under Ken Macha this season. Another point of interest to watch will be if the Brewer hitters feel the pressure of a slow start and ignore the new found patient was, and revert back to the hackers that they have been in previous seasons.

Brewer Relief Pitchers

2009-04-18T19:07:00.003-05:00

An overview of the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen pitchers -- what do they throw? How often? How fast? Type of pitcher.

Trevor Hofman
"The Hoff" should be making his Brewers debut soon. He is a fastball (63%) and change (30%) pitcher, but has thrown a few more sliders (7%) in recent years. His fastball averages 86 mph and he is a flyball pitcher.

Seth McClung
"Big Red" is fastball (72%) and curve (20%) pitcher, that will mix a slider and rare change in. He is a neutral pitcher, but more heavily GB in the two previous seasons, whose heater averages 93 mph.

Todd Coffey
Coffey is a fastball (74%) and slider (19%) pitcher, but will mix in the occasional change (7%). He is an extreme groundball pitcher whose fastball averages 93 mph.

Mark DiFelice
DiFelice throws his cutter (80%) of the time, and mixes in a fastball (11%) and change (9%). He is an extreme flyball pitcher whose cutter averages 83 mph.

Jorge Julio
Jorge is a fastball (70%) and slider (24%) pitcher, who will throw a change (6%) on rare occasions. He is a groundball pitcher who averages 94 mph on his heater.

Carlos Villanueva
He is a rare 4 pitch reliever - fastball (35%), change (28%), slider (23%), and curve (14%). He is a neutral pitcher with a 89 mph fastball.

Mitch Stetter
The lefty is a slider (53%) and fastball (47%) pitcher. He is a flyball pitcher with a 85 mph fastball.

RJ Swindle
The left is a fastball (48%), slider (40%) pitcher, but will mix in a curve (8%) and change (4%). The information is taken from very limited data and should not be considered a solid basis for his repertoire.

David Riske
Riske is a fastball (83%!) pitcher that will mix in a change, and splitter. He is a flyball pitcher with a fastball averaging at 88 mph.

Brewer Starting Pitchers

2009-04-17T20:52:00.003-05:00

A look at what each Brewer pitcher throws with velocity (stats taken from Fangraphs.com)

Yovani Gallardo
Yo will throw a fastball (65%) and curve (28%) pitcher, and will mix in a change and slider. A neutral pitcher whose fastball average 91 mph.

Braden Looper
Looper is a fastball (65%), splitter (20%), and slider (15%). A ground ball pitcher that averages 89 mph on his FB.

Manny Parra
A fastball (58%), curve (17%), change (17%), and splitter (8%) pitcher. A ground ball pitcher who averages 92 mph on his FB.

Jeff Suppan
Sup throws a fastball (60%), change (14%), curve (12%), and slider (12%). A ground ball pitcher who averages 88 mph on his fastball.

Dave Bush
Bush throws a fastball (56%), and curve (20%), but will also mix in a cutter (11%), and change (9%), and the rare slider (4%). Bush is a ground ball pitcher who averages 89 mph on his FB.

Yovani Gallardo

2009-04-09T18:39:00.003-05:00

For the Milwaukee Brewers to have a chance to make the playoffs many things must happen. One of them is that Yovani Gallardo must stay healthy and fill the shoes of Ben Sheets. Gallardo's opening effort against the San Francisco Giants proved that the 23 yeard old pitching phenom has the talent and ability to be the Brewers ace this year (and for many years to come).

Gallardo worked 6.2 innings, throwing 103 pitches. 67 of his pitchs were thrown for strikes (65%) with his curve being almost hittable by the Giant hitters. His fastball topped out at 95 mph, and was consistent throughout the night.

Obviously, Gallardo will run across some rough stretches throughout the season (as all young pitchers do), but their is no denying that Gallardo has the talent that every team would love to have take the hill every five days.

Monday Pitching Match-Ups

2009-04-05T09:45:00.002-05:00

Here is the data for the Monday Pitching Match-ups -- by dominance rating.

CC Sabathia .099 better than Jeremy Guthrie

Brandon Webb .092 over Aaron Cook

Francisco Liriano .076 over Felix Hernandez

Johan Santana .062 over Aaron Harang

Jake Peavy .038 over Hideki Kuroda

Ricky Nolasco .037 over John Lannan

Roy Halladay .034 over Justin Verlander

James Shields .023 over Josh Beckett

Adam Wainwright .015 over Paul Maholm

Dallas Braden .012 over Joe Saunders

Roy Oswalt .009 over Carlos Zambrano

Gil Meche .005 over Mark Buehrle

Cliff Lee .004 over Kevin Millwood

Pitcher Dominance Rating

2009-04-05T09:15:00.004-05:00

Throughout the year I will examine Dominance Rating (a stat that I developed and researching) which is:

((O-Swing%) * (1 - Contact%) * (F-PitchK * .5)) * 10

*I may modify the stat some as I find flaws in it, and will note them on this blog.

Tonight's opening match-up between the Braves and Phillies matches, Derek Lowe (.158) versus Brett Myers (.139). Obviously the Phillies have the better offense, and home field advantage, but Lowe is the better SP in the game. The only real difference between the two (as based by the stat) is that Lowe gets batters to chance about 6% more pitches out of the zone.

Getting To Know: Braden Looper

2009-03-31T21:31:00.004-05:00

Braden Looper, acquired via free agency, will be entering his 12th MLB season in 2009, but only his 3rd year as a starter. Between the years 2003-2005, he had 76 saves for the Marlins and Mets - so he has some big situation innings under his belt. As a starter he has posted a 24-26 record (both years for the Cardinals) as he honed his starting skills under the tutelage of one of the premier pitching coaches in the game.

Looper is a 6-3 220 pound right hander that focuses on throwing over the top. As a starter he uses his fastball about 65% of the time (averaging around 90 mph), throws a split finger, and also a slider. He basically abandoned his change-up in 2008, and increased the usage of his slider and split more. Looper is not the type of pitcher that will blow you away and is more of a contact pitcher. Like most pitchers, he is at his best when he gets ahead of the hitters (over 61% of first pitches were for strikes in 2008) and then make them chase pitches off the plate (he got batters to swing at 25% of pitches off the plate in 2008). He is a ground ball pitcher (1.60 GB/FB ratio over his career) that will keep his infielders on their toes when he is on the mound.

He is nothing more than an inning eater that is projected to be a .500 pitcher at best. He is a decent back of the rotation guy that will keep you in most games.

NL Central Preview: First Basemen

2009-03-13T09:38:00.002-05:00

For as weak as the 2B crop is in the NL Central, the 1B crop is tremendously strong. You can look at almost any NL Central team and see that their 1B has potential to be an All-Star in 2009. Once again we will be looking at the 1B by using wOBA (to examine offense) and UZR/150 to examine defense.

Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals
Pujols is quickly becoming one of the best players of our generation. Even with some "steroid" talk swirling around, it is clear that he is the best hitter in the game (and has been for a few seasons). Pujols could win the MVP in any season for the next decade. His wOBA is remarkable, .448 (2006), .414 (2007), and .458 (2008). Not only is he the top hitter in the NL Central, he is also the top defensive 1B in the NL Central. Enjoy everytime you get a chance to see Pujols play because he is one of the players that will be remembered in the record books for a long time.

Lance Berkman - Houston Astros
"Fat Elvis" had a remarkable first half to the 2008 season, and even showed some rare speed numbers. His 2nd half was not as good, but he still managed to have one of his better seasons of his HOF career. Berkman has posted a wOBA over .400 in two of his last three seasons - .425 (2006), .383 (2007), and .419 (2008). Berkman is an above average defender at 1B, which only make him more valuable.

Prince Fielder - Milwaukee Brewers
Fielder is one of the top young 1B in the game, but is only ranked 3rd in the NL Central at 1B. His wOBA numbers were down last year compared to his monsterous 2007 season. Over the last three seasons he has posted wOBA of .354 (2006), .417 (2007), and .370 (2008). Fielder has a long way to go to catch up to Berkman, but is the solid #3 guy with a chance to keep improving. Defensively Fielder is the worst 1B in the NL Central, even though he has shown some improvement as he matures.

Derek Lee - Chicago Cubs
Derek Lee was once one of the premier 1B in the game, but has been on a decline the past few seasons. Lee posted wOBA's of .360 (2006), .391 (2007), and .360 (2008). His 2007 season shows that he can still have a big year, but it is starting to look like that won't be the case in most future seasons. Lee is an above average 1B which puts him close to Prince Fielder in the rankings.

Joey Votto - Cincinnati Reds
Votto lived up to the hype in his first fulltime season in the bigs in 2008. His .373 wOBA is a very solid start for the youngster, and has the ability to surpass Derek Lee this season. Defensively Votto posted the best UZR/150 rating for NL 1B in 2008 with a +9.6, but more data is needed to solidify him as one of the top defensive 1B.

Adam LaRoche - Pittsburgh Pirates
LaRoche is nothing more than just an average 1B in the league at best. His wOBA's were nothing special .379 (2006), .346 (2007), and .357 (2008), and nobody will really notice him in while he is playing in Pittsburgh. While the other NL Central teams are loaded at 1B, the Bucs could use an upgrade. In the field LaRoche is slightly below average posting two negative seasons of UZR/150 in the past three seasons.

NL Central: Second Basemen

2009-03-12T05:49:00.002-05:00

As we examine the 2B of the NL Central for the 2009 season, we will look at them using wOBA. If you are not familar with wOBA, then click this link to find out more information.

Brendan Ryan - St. Louis Cardinals
Ryan has only had 417 PA's during his two brief stints in the big leagues, and posted a .308 wOBA over those PA's. Expectations for him are not high this year, and he might be able to become a defensively positive 2B during the 2009 season.

Kaz Matsui - Houston Astros
Matsui has improved his wOBA in each of the previous three seasons. .306 (2006), .341 (2007), and .349 (2008), but he has continues to find himself on the DL too often. He played a great defensive game in 2007 in Colorado, but was below average with the glove in Houston last season. Matsui will probably be the top 2B in the NL, if he can find a way to stay healthy.

Aaron Miles - Chicago Cubs
The Cubs will replace Mark DeRosa with journeyman Aaron Miles (but could be beat out by Mike Fontenot). Miles is below average with the bat posting wOBA's of .291 (2006), .301 (2007), and .331 (2008). Those that follow average only will think Miles is better than he is, but don't be fooled by the common stats. He is an average defensive 2B.

Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds
Phillips is considered to be the top 2B in the NL Central, but if you look closer at the #'s you will notice that he isn't any better than the others. Phillips has posted wOBA's of .331 (2006), .354 (2007), and .324 (2008) and is undeserving of his clean-up role in the Reds line-up. Defensively he has spectacular the last two seasons for the Reds, and is more valuable in the field than at the plate.

Freddy Sanchez - Pittsburgh Pirates
It is time for the Pirates to start looking for other options as Sanchez has been in a massive decline for the past few seasons. He wOBP has declined from .364 (2006) to .339 (2007) and the dismal .292 (2008). Sanchez is a slightly above average fielder for the Bucs.

Rickie Weeks - Milwaukee Brewers
The Rickie Weeks era continues to be played out in Miller Park for the Brewers. His wOBA is above average compared to his NL Central counterparts. Weeks has posted wOBA's of .344 (2006), .365 (2007), and .334 (2008). Weeks has shown good power, but is rediculed by the fans for his low average -- he should not be the Brewers lead-off hitter, but it seems that they have no other options at this time. Defensively Weeks is below average in the field.

Pitching Dominance

2009-03-09T23:23:00.003-05:00

Before I start delving into the Milwaukee Brewers for the 2009 season, I have been crunching some numbers and looking for new ways to calculate dominance. As I was searching through Fangraphs I pulled the pitching data for SPs with a minimum of 100 innings since 2005.

I developed SP Dominance, which is the following:
(1 minus Contact%) * (First Pitch K%) * (O-Swing %)

This is a very raw stat in it's early development, so I would gladly look for feedback from anyone who would like to make comments. The reason I choose those 3 categories are:

First Pitch K%
Getting ahead or behind after the 1st pitch definitely sets the tone for the entire AB.

O-Swing %
Getting batters to expand the strike zone is a huge benefit for pitching.

1 minus Contact %
At times pitchers must throw strikes, and it measures how tough they are to hit in all situations.

Here are the Top 5 from each of the past four seasons:
2008
.057 - CC Sabathia
.053 - Rich Harden
.048 - Ervin Santana
.046 - Jake Peavy
.044 - Javier Vazquez, Cole Hamels, and Dan Haren

2007
.061 - John Smoltz
.049 - Johan Santana
.047 - Cole Hamels
.047 - Kelvim Escobar
.045 - Javier Vazquez

2006
.051 - John Smoltz
.050 - Johan Santana
.047 - Jake Peavy
.045 - Jeremy Bonderman
.045 - CC Sabathia

2005
.054 - Johan Santana
.040 - Jake Peavy
.040 - John Smoltz
.037 - Rich Harden, Andy Pettitte, and Javier Vazquez

Finally, a look at five of the premier pitchers over the past four seasons.

2009 Projections

2008-12-26T05:48:00.004-06:00

These projections were taken from Sportsline Fantasy Baseball 2009 Projections located for free on their website.

C-Jason Kendall .262/.319/.326 2HR 7SB
1B-Prince Fielder .281/.381/.553 40HR 5SB
2B-Rickie Weeks .245/.352/.406 15HR 22SB
3B-Bill Hall .257/.321/.454 15HR 5SB
SS-JJ Hardy .271/.330/.447 24HR 4SB
LF-Ryan Braun .301/.349/.587 38HR 14SB
CF-Mike Cameron .248/.338/.447 20HR 14SB
RF-Corey Hart .260/.322/.459 21HR 21SB

SP-Yovani Gallardo 182IP, 12-7, 3.36 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 166/67 K/BB
SP-Manny Parra 190IP, 11-9, 4.31 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 168/77
SP-Dave Bush 190IP, 10-11, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 110/50
SP-Jeff Suppan 191IP, 11-10, 4.56 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 103/68
SP-Carlos Villanueva 92IP, 5-5, 3.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 77/31

*I added Villanueva to the rotation, even though he is only listed with 92 innings.

Ken Macha on MLB XM (Tuesday Late Edition)

2008-12-09T20:31:00.003-06:00

New Brewers manager, Ken Macha, was on Late Edition on XM Radio on Tuesday. Here is a quick recap....

Said they still have a chance at CC Sabathia.
Said he is impressed with the fans enthusiasm for the Milwaukee Brewers.
Mike Lamb is a bench player, but can play several positions. Bill Hall is the incumbent 3B for the team.
The current Brewers team is compared to Oakland, "They remind me of the A's team because they are losing their top two pitchers".
Carlos Villanueva, David Riske, Todd Coffey are all potential closers for the team.
Said a scout that is a friend of his in the Braves organization stated that "Ryan Braun is one of the top 3 players in the NL". Macha has never seen Braun play before though.
Willie Randolph will be Rickie Weeks mentor.

Brewer Fielding Rankings

2008-12-07T10:11:00.003-06:00

Fangraphs.com (the best site on the internet) added UFZ to their site, which gives us an idea of how good of a fielder a player is at his position. So I will quickly look at the 2008 Brewers, and see where some improvements can be made.

Prince Fielder (1B) -7.5 UZR/150
Prince is basically costing the Brewers 7.5 runs per 150 games, but there is nowhere else to put the slugger, so the Brewers will have to live with it for the time being. He had the 3rd worst rating of NL 1B only beating James Loney, and Mike Jacobs (who is now with the Kansas City Royals). Fielder was 2nd of the NL 1B with 17 errors, only beating Ryan Howard (who had 19 errors).

Rickie Weeks (2B) -5.3 UZR/150
Not only is Weeks not producing with the bat, he isn't doing much to help the team defensively. He has improved from his horrible defense in 2005 and 2006, but Weeks is starting to look more and more like a bust for the Brewers.

Bill Hall (3B) +9.5 UZR/150
Bill Hall can get to the ball at 3B, and led NL 3B with a +9.5 UZR/150. His .939 Fielding Percentage isn't great, only beating out Jorge Cantu, Edwin Encarnacion, and Mark Reynolds (who is completely awful at 3B). Hall can play the position with the best of them, but it seems to be a circus at times with him at the hot corner.

JJ Hardy (SS) +12.2 UZR/150
Hardy was ranked 3rd in UZR/150 behind Jimmy Rollins (13.4) and Cesar Izturis (12.5). Everyone focuses on Hardy's batting skills, but his defense is just as impressive as his stick. He must have great insticts and reactions because his foot speed is well below the average shortstop in the game.

Ryan Braun (LF) -4.0 UZR/150
A lot was made of Braun shifting to left field and not having any errors, and that is impressive given the number of games that he played. However, his UZR/150 shows that he isn't helping the team much in LF either. His bat more than makes up for his lack of defensive ability, and his UZR/150 should improve with more experience in LF, but the Brewers made the right move by shifting him from 3B to LF for the 2008 season.

Mike Cameron (CF) +13.3 UZR/150
Mike Cameron is the premier defensive CF in the National League by far -- his league leading +13.3 is more than twice of 2nd place Carlos Beltran's (+6.2 rating). Much is made of the number of strikeouts that Cameron posts in a given year, but his power, speed, and defensive ability are all assets. The Brewers made the correct move by using their team option to keep Cameron around for the 2009 season.

Corey Hart (RF) -0.7 UZR/150
Hart is basically a defensive neutral player, who doesn't have much on an impact to help or hurt his team throughout the course of a season on the defensive side. Everyway that you look at Hart's defensive game shows that he is average: UZR/150, assists, errors, and double plays.

Overall:
The Brewers left side defense is as good as any NL teams in the game with Hardy and Hall locking down SS and 3B. The right side is a work in progress as Weeks and Fielder are both below average. Mike Cameron makes up for the raw Ryan Braun in left, and the average Corey Hart in right.

Swinging Strike %

2008-11-24T09:04:00.004-06:00

A stat that I am starting to take note of can be found on www.statcorner.com, and it is the % of pitches that result in a swinging strike for a pitcher. It is assumed that a strong swinging strike % (SS%) will result in a more dominating pitcher (thus better results). I examine the Brewer starting pitchers from the 2008 season, and their past three major league seasons.

CC Sabathia
It is no surprise that Sabathia has led the Brewer pitchers in SS%, and for the Brewers to keep his services he will be paid heavily. Sabathia probably isn't as good as he was last season for the Brewers, but he is one of the top pitchers in the game (and will be paid like it soon).

2006 - 11.6
2007 - 11.3
2008 - 13.0

Carlos Villanueva
I assumed that Ben Sheets would be the #2 Brewer SP in SS%, but was surprised to see that it was Carlos Villanueva. He has posted double digit #s in the past two seasons, and should be considered for the starting rotation again in 2009.

2006 - 7.7
2007- 10.8
2008 - 10.1

Manny Parra
Parra is starting to get some major backing from the fantasy guru's to have a great 2009 season, as almost all his interior numbers say that he was better than he pitched last year. Parra is expected to make a large contribution for the Brewers to make another run at the playoffs in 2009.

2007 - 8.6
2008 - 9.3

Ben Sheets
Some have been saying that Sheets isn't the same pitcher that he once was, and that his past injuries have cost him in the discussion of top pitchers in the game. His decline in SS% seems to indicate that he isn't as dominate as he once was.

2006 - 11.5
2007 - 8.2
2008 - 8.5

Yovani Gallardo
He is the next big young pitcher in the Brewers organization, and due to lack of innings his numbers should not be taken too seriously. His SS% from 2007 is a better indication of his ability than his 2008 season (due to minimal innings in 2008 from injury).

2007 - 8.9
2008 - 7.5

Dave Bush
Bush is a tough guy to figure out. His interior numbers have always been decent, but his on field production has never matched them. Many projections for Bush in 2009 are not favorable now as his SS% decreases.

2006 - 8.7
2007 - 9.1
2008 - 7.5

Jeff Suppan
He is expected to eat innings, and he will do that, but isn't a dominating pitcher as most people know. His futility in the SS% category means that the Brewers defense better be ready when he pitches.

2006 - 5.9
2007 - 7.3
2008 - 5.9

Outlook:
Would a rotation of: Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Suppan, and Dave Bush be could enough for the Brewers to contend in the NL Central in 2009? It seems that for that to happen Gallardo and Parra would have to increase their innings pitches, Villanueva would have to finally settle into a role in the starting rotation, and Bush and Suppan would have to take the hill and hope to be .500 at the end of the season. Any signifigant loss of innings from injury to any of the top three would be a severe blow to the Brewers chances in 2009.

CC Sabathia Bidding War

2008-11-17T10:19:00.002-06:00

The Milwaukee Brewers are at 5 years 100 million dollars, the New York Yankees are at 6 years 140 million dollars. MLB XM is reporting that they think that the Yankees will sign him for around 150 million when it the bidding war stops.

They are reporting that he will accept more than Johan Santana, out of pride, but might be willing to take less money from the Los Angeles Dodgers or Anahiem Angels as long as he gets more than the Johan Santana's contract. It looks like the Milwaukee Brewers will move onto Plan B because they won't be able to reach the Johan Santana mark --- does Plan B include Ben Sheets in it?

2009 Line-Up

2008-11-17T09:29:00.002-06:00

Using Baseball Musings Line-Up Analysis tool, I plugged Bill James 2009 projections into the model and ran the 1998-2002 model line-up analysis and found the following.

Three line-ups had 5.183 runs scored per game average and based upon those line-ups the following was consistent for all.

Lead-off: Rickie Weeks
2nd: Prince Fielder
3rd: Mike Cameron (2), JJ Hardy (1)
4th: Ryan Braun
5th: JJ Hardy (2), Corey Hart (1)
6th: Bill Hall (2), Corey Hart (1)
7th: Corey Hart (1), Mike Cameron (1), Bill Hall (1)
8th: Pitcher
9th: Jason Kendall

The general Brewer fan base was not happy with Ned Yost's early line-ups with the pitcher hitting 8th and Jason Kendall batting ninth, so I doubt that they would be welcome to the idea of it returning for 2009. Along with that, Prince Fielder in the 2nd slot would baffle the general Brewer base, and probably even most radio and TV reporters. Of the top 30 line-ups for the team: Rickie Weeks was the lead-off hitter in all of them, Ryan Braun was the clean-up hitter in all of them, the pitcher was the 8th batter, and Jason Kendall was in the 9 hole.

The worst possible line-up, which would average 4.387 runs, would be:

1st: Pitcher
2nd: Bill Hall
3rd: Corey Hart
4th: Jason Kendall
5th: Mike Cameron
6th: Rickie Weeks
7th: Jason Kendall
8th: Prince Fielder
9th: Ryan Braun

Rickie Weeks Article

2008-11-17T09:14:00.003-06:00

I was getting ready to write an article about Rickie Weeks-JJ Hardy, but saw an article at "The Junkball Blues" analyzing Rickie Weeks so I figured that I would direct you to that article and focus my time in another area.

The LINK is as follows:
http://community.sportsbubbler.com/blogs/the_junkball_blues/archive/2008/11/14/rickie-weeks-is-not-a-bust.aspx

ENJOY

Brewers Analysis

2008-11-12T06:12:00.002-06:00

Over the next few posts I will examine the Brewers statistically as a team. I am going to start with the general pitching statistics today....

The Brewers finished 4th in ERA with at 3.87, and posted a ridiculously 2.53 team ERA in August. At first glance you would think that the Brewers had a great staff, but the solid team ERA was effected by luck and a good defense. The Brewers Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) ranked 16th in MLB at 4.34 which is a difference of .47 (the largest of any team). Now the Brewers defense was above average (no matter what you might expect), but it was not that big of a difference as shown by the Brewers pitchers BABIP of .293 (tied for 4th with the Cubs). The lower BABIP shows that the Brewer pitchers got lucky more often than other teams. With or without CC Sabathia and/or Ben Sheets expect the Brewers ERA to rise in the 2009 season.

NL Central ERA/FIP/BABIP
Milwaukee Brewers 3.87/4.34/.293
Chicago Cubs 3.87/4.09/.293
St. Louis Cardinals 4.20/4.40/.301
Houston Astros 4.39/4.53/.300
Cincinnati Reds 4.55/4.54/.321
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.10/4.84/.317

The Brewers ranked 7th in GB/FB ratio, and ranked 28th in HR/FB at 11.7%. It is obviously that the key to the Brewers pitching staff is to keep the ball on the ground, so it does not end up in the seats.

In examining the starters, Manny Parra led the Brewers with a 1.96 GB/FB ratio followed by CC Sabathia 1.86, Jeff Suppan 1.38, Ben Sheets 0.99, Carlos Villanueva 0.99, Dave Bush 0.97, Seth McClung 0.95, and Yovani Gallardo 0.84. The Brewers could sustain a high GB/FB ratio if they lose Sabathia, but they would drop in the rankings.

NL Central GB/FB and HR/FB
St. Louis Cardinals 1.34/10.3%
Milwaukee Brewers 1.33/11.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.27/10.8%
Cincinnati Reds 1.18/12.7%
HoustonAstros 1.17/12.1%
Chicago Cubs 1.07/9.8%

The Brewers ranked 25th in percentage of fastballs thrown at 57.3% and tied for 19th with a fastball velocity of 90.6 mph. With Mike Maddux gone from the coaching staff it is tough to predict how the Brewers will attack hitters in the 2009 season, but if they do not re-sign Ben Sheets then the fastball percentage will most likely increase as Sheets let all starters with 33% of his pitches thrown were curveballs.

NL Central FB%/FB velocity
Pittsburgh Pirates 62.6%/90.6
Houston Astros 62.5%/90.5
St. Louis Cardinals 60.7%/91.1
Chicago Cubs 57.8%/90.9
Milwaukee Brewers 57.3%/90.6
Cincinnati Reds 56.7%/91.3

An interesting note is the two teams in the NL Central Central that had the highest percentage of FB thrown, the Pirates and the Astros, also had the highest FIP and ERA in the division. They also had the lowest fastball velocity of the group (the Brewers tied with the Pirates for 2nd lowest at 90.6 mph).

Salomon Torres Retires

2008-11-11T18:02:00.002-06:00

Brewers interim closer for the 2008 season, Salomon Torres, has retired at the age of 37. Over his career he pitched in 847.1 innings, had a career ERA of 4.31, and struck out 540 batters. In his final season, Torres posted a career high 28 saves over the course of 80 innings for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Salomon Torres spent the majority of his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but will probably remember his only season with the Milwaukee Brewers are his finest.

The Brewers who were expected to pick up his option are now definitely now in the market for a closer -- Trevor Hoffman and Huston Street are the logical choices at this time. Street was recently traded from Oakland to Colorado, and is expected to be traded from Colorado before Spring Training starts

Yankees Asking About Mike Cameron

2008-11-06T12:55:00.003-06:00

The New York Yankees have inquired about Brewers centerfielder Mike Cameron, in a deal that would send Melky Cabrera and at least an additional player to the Brewers.

Melky Cabrera is a 24 year old switch hitting center fielder that was basically run out of Yankee Stadium this season.

2006 - 460 ABs - .280 AVG - 7 HR - 12 SB - .360 OBP - .752 OPS
2007 - 545 ABs - .273 AVG - 8 HR - 13 SB - .327 OBP - .718 OPS
2008 - 414 ABs - .249 AVG - 8 HR - 9 SB - .301 OBP - .641 OPS

Cabrera debuted as what looked to be a solid hitter, with less than average power, and a good ability to get on base. That all changed in 2007 when his Swing % went from 43.21% to 47.28%, him swinging more didn't make him a worse player, but the percent of pitches that he swung at outside the zone grew from 22.2% to 29.5%. He was not able to revert back into the patient hitter in 2008 and saw his numbers drop him off the Yankees future plans.

The good on Cabrera is that he is a switch hitter, and would be an ideal #2 hitter for the Brewers. However, for that to happen he would have to be more selective at the plate, something that Brewer hitters in general have not been able to show in recent years. The secondary players in this deal would have to be fairly solid for this to pay-off for the Brewers -- maybe a nice bullpen arm would get the deal sealed.

$147 Million!

2008-11-04T20:26:00.003-06:00

The Milwaukee Brewers made a very serious opening offer to CC Sabathia with an offer of 147 million dollars to stay with the club. I am guessing that this would be over 7 years, so making his salary 21 million dollars per year.

I am sure that another team might outbid them (ie - Yankees), but the Brewers have made a great offer to a pitcher that loved his brief time in Milwaukee.

Something to think about....
If the Brewers can lock up CC Sabathia, would you be willing to trade Prince Fielder or JJ Hardy to the Giants for Matt Cain?

A rotation of Sabathia, Cain, Gallardo, Suppan, Parra would be very solid going into the 2009 season.

Hardy was ranked as the #4 statistical shortstop (combination of offense and defense) during the 2008 season, more valuable than Fielder overall, but it seems as the club might have a better replacement for Hardy than they do for Fielder.

Cameron Returns, Maddux Moves On

2008-11-03T11:17:00.002-06:00

The Milwaukee Brewers will excercise the 10 million dollar club option on Mike Cameron and place him as the starting centerfielder for the 2009 season. Mike Cameron posted an .809 OPS, and 5.77 RC/27 in his debut season with the club in 2008. His HR/FB rate jumped as he escaped from the hitters nightmare known as Petco Park in San Diego, and he was used in the lead-off spot down the stretch for interim manager Dale Sveum. While Cameron is not a lead-off hitter, he is well worth the 10 million dollars if you look at his full production (OPS and defensive ability) and not just his low batting average and high strikeout rate.

In other Brewer news, pitching coach Mike Maddux will be hired by the Texas Rangers sometime this week. I personally thought that Maddux did a fine job with the pitching staff in his time with the Brewers getting the best out of the players he was given to work with. Now his real job will be turning around a Texas Rangers pitching staff that is horrible, and plays in the biggest launching pad in baseball.

Trevor Hoffman To Brewers

2008-11-02T11:10:00.003-06:00

Trevor Hoffman in a Milwaukee Brewers uniform for the 2009 season is something that probably won't happen, but it should in my opinion. Since the departure of Francisco Cordero after the 2007 season, the Brewers bullpen has been in shambles. Eric Gagne was brought in to be the closer, but was unable to be successful in the role that he once dominated the majors in. Salomon Torres, a former closer with the Pirates, was given the opportunity and did well with it until the last month of the season when nothing he did was correct.

With the ten million dollar signing of Eric Gagne last season it shows that GM Doug Melvin is willing to pay good money to get a solid ninth inning pitcher -- he was incorrect on Gagne though. Why not take that ten million and throw it at 41 year old closer that has been solid for since his first season in 1993, and has some postseason experience? Hoffman loves San Diego, but that team is not going to be contending in 2009 -- the Brewers should still be in the mix of the playoffs, and could give Hoffman a chance to get a World Series ring.

His fastball only clocks in at 86 mph on average, but it is his deadly change-up and ability to throw strikes that he given him recognition as one of the premier closers of all-time. In 2008, his ERA was 3.77 (3rd highest in his career), but his K/BB was 5.11 (also the 3rd highest of his career). Some concern must be given to the fact that he is 41 years old, and has a 40%+ flyball percentage, but he is better than all other options that the Brewers have at this time.

Sabathia Pictures

2008-10-16T23:27:00.004-05:00

I am messing around with the free photo editing software called "The Gimp", and edited some Sabathia pictures that I had on my HD. It is actually a pretty easy piece of software to use, and each picture probably only took 15 minutes to complete.

Brewer Free Agents

2008-10-08T19:55:00.003-05:00

1. CC Sabathia - He says that he will give the Brewers the first chance to sign him, and we have to hope that he will accept a contract with fewer years than others offer, but with the same yearly salary. It is unlikely that he will be a Brewer next year, but their is a small sliver of hope.

10% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

2. Ben Sheets - He has been the face of the Brewers for awhile, but was pushed down the list when Fielder and Braun emerged and pushed to the #2 SP when Sabathia arrived. His body of work shows his talent, but also his nagging injuries. With an elbow that is in question, he might sign a 1 year deal with the Brewers if nobody is willing to give him a big time multi-year deal.

25% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

3. Mike Cameron - The Brewers have a 10 million dollar option on him, and I think that they should use it. While his batting average wasn't great, you need to look at a more productive way to evalluate hitters and see that his OPS was a solid .809. He will strike out way too often, but plays an above average center field. He is easily worth the $10 for an additional year. Despite poopular belief, Tony Gwynn Jr is NOT ready to be the everyday CF in 2009.

80% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

4. Salomon Torres - His overall numbers look pretty good, but he was terrible in the final month of the season and in the playoffs. The Brewers will probably accept the 3.75 million dollar club option, but he shouldn't be locked into the closers role for an entire season.

75% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

5. Ray Durham - He played well for the Brewers down the stretch and gives them a solid switch hitter who isn't an easy out. He can be a stabilizing veteran force on the team to help guide the young guns as they try to continue to progress. If Weeks doesn't emerge as a legit everyday major league player than Durham is a must have on this team.

50% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

6. Russell Branyan - Branyan might be signed once he figures out that the interest in him is limited, and I don't see the Brewers making him a priority signing.

25% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

7. Guillermo Mota - He proved to be more valuable than I thought he would be this season, and worked himself back into crucial innings down the stretch of the season -- but I don't see the Brewers being the high bidders for his service (as some team will think he is better than he really is). His lack of control should not be rewarded with a multi-year deal.

25% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

8. Eric Gagne - Nice guy, but there is no way that he will be back with the Brewers after stealing 10 million from the team in 2008.

0% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

9. Gabe Kapler - He had some key hits for the Brewers throughout the season, but he is nothing more than a 4th outfielder. He is a good character guy, so maybe the Brewers will be able to bring him back for an additional year.

50% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

10. Brian Shouse - Mitch Stetter got the big lefty innings in the playoffs, so Shouse may not be back with the club in 09. His overall numbers are pretty good over the past two seasons, and another team might lock him up to a multi-year deal. He is a solid lefty option, that the Brewers would miss if Stetter falters in 09.

50% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

11. Craig Counsell - The Brewers have a club option, but will probably decline it and might sign him for a lower price via free agency. He is a good character guy on the team, that can play multiple positions - but is nothing more than a bench player that won't even hit for average anymore. If they can get him on the cheapside then he will be welcomed back.

30% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

12. Mike Lamb - Only had 11 plate appearances for the Brewers, as he was a late addition. Something tells me that he will be Doug Melvin's project for 2009, and will replace Branyan as the lefty off the bench that might steal some time at 3B. He doesn't strike out a ton, so that would be a change of pace for the Brewers.

25% chance that he is a Brewer in 2009

2008 Season Finished

2008-10-08T17:03:00.004-05:00

A wild and crazy year for the Brewers ended on Sunday afternoon in the NLDS against the Philadelphia Phillies. In which should have been a pretty even game was turned upside down as the lead-off batter Jimmy Rollins hit a home run to start the game. Pat Burrell followed with two home runs on the day to cap off the 2008 version of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Suppan only lasted 3 innings (65 pitches) and allowed five earned runs in that span. Yovanni Gallardo pitched 3 solid innings of relief, not allowing any earned runs. JJ Hardy and Ryan Braun were the only two Brewer hitters to have two hits on the day.

The Brewers had a wild season - slow start, hot middle, slump down the stretch, firing of Yost, and then picking it back up to make the playoffs. While it wasn't a World Series ring, it was nice to be back in the playoffs after 26 years of no postseason play.

I will preview the 2009 team soon.

Game 4: 10 Million Dollar Man

2008-10-05T00:38:00.003-05:00

So I actually missed Game 3 because of work, but have it on the TIVO, but probably won't watch it until tomorrow morning.

Game 4 brings an interesting pitching match-up as Jeff Suppan (10-10 4.96 -1.34 WPA) takes on Joe Blanton (9-12 4.69 -1.91 WPA). The Brewers are paying Suppan roughly 10 million dollars per season based on his postseason showing with the St. Louis Cardinals, and the Phillies made a mid-season trade to get Joe Blanton to help push them into the playoffs this season.

The numbers for both pitchers are pretty similar (comparison Blanton followed by Suppan)....
K/9 - 5.05/4.56
BB/9 - 3.01/3.39
HR/9 - 1.68/1.34
AVG - .275/.292
GB/FB - 1.26/1.38

Both are very average pitchers that will keep the ball on the ground, will give up hits, but not give up many home runs.

Even there pitching repitoire is very similar... (Blanton followed by Suppan)......
FB - 56%/51%
SL - 15/23
CB - 12/10
CH - 16/16

and both have fastballs that average less than 90 mph.

The key will be which hitters are on tomorrow, and who makes the fewest mistakes in the field behind their pitchers (as neither of them will strikeout many batters). If the Brewers can win Game 4, then the showdown of Cole Hamels versus CC Sabathia in a Game 5 would be one for the ages.

Game 2 Preview

2008-10-01T19:25:00.004-05:00

Neither offense was great in the opening game, and the key swing was defensive lapses by the Brewers. I doubt that we see many low scoring games in this series, so enjoy the fact that the Brewer pitchers did well (and played good enough to win the game).

Brett Myers (10-13 4.55 -1.43 WPA) takes the hill for the Phillies in game two against CC Sabathia (17-10 2.70 +5.14 WPA). Myers, much like Cole Hamels, will attempt to keep the Brewer hitters guessing by limiting his fastball to less than 50% of his pitches. Myers will also mix in a curve (23%), slider (18%), and change (9%) and finds the strike zone 64% of the time. If the Brewer hitters chase pitches off the plate then they will rack up the strikeouts, but if they can be patient then they should force Myers to work from behind in the count and use his fastball more. Myers is a groundball pitcher, so even if he does walk some batters he has the ability to work out of potentially big innings. He does have a higher than normal HR/FB rate over the course of his career, so the Brewers should be able to wait for a mistake and take advantage of it something they did not do in Myers complete game against them on 9/14 when he only threw 95 pitches.

Key At-Bat:
Brett Myers vs Corey Hart
Hart has proven down the stretch to chase the slider off the plate, so can Myers capatilize on Hart's aggressive approach at the plate as he presses to contribute in September? Or can Hart lay off those pitches and find himself on bases and make Myers pay with his legs?

Braun Blog

2008-10-01T06:18:00.001-05:00

http://ryanbraun.mlblogs.com/?partnerId=rss_mil

Game One: Gallardo vs Hamels

2008-09-29T22:00:00.003-05:00

Yovani Gallardo was phenomenal in his rookie season in 2007, but an ACL tear ended his 2008 season before it really got into gear --- well sort of, until he returned to pitch a meaningful game down the stretch of the season to help propel the Brewers into the playoffs. Gallardo showed good velocity in his start, which saw him throw 67 pitches over 4 innings (40 of them for strikes). While the Brewers need to make a statement in game one, don't expect Gallardo to go beyond 75 pitches, and look for Seth McClung who pitched some solid innings against the Cubs to relieve Gallardo in the 5th or 6th inning.

Cole Hamels (14-10 3.09) has been the Phillies ace and draws the opening game slot. The tall lefty throws a fastball, change, and curve. His velocity on the fastball averages at 90 mph, and his change is a good 10 mph slower. He attempts to keep hitters off balance by mixing his pitches and only throwing his fastball around 55% of the time. Hamels has been a model of consistency for the Phillies over the past two season with a fairly even GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB around 12% (which is good for Citizens Bank Park). Hamels has seen his K/9 decrease over the past three seasons, but is getting tougher to get a hit against (.231 opponent BA this season). He has only went less than 90 pitches in 2 of his 33 starts this season, and is 2-0 against the Brewers in 2008.

Hamels is obviously the better pitcher going into this game -- the Brewers do fair well against lefties, but the questionable Gallardo and unpredictable McClung are no match for the young lefty.

I will examine the offense for both teams tomorrow evening.

Party Like It's 1982!

2008-09-28T16:19:00.002-05:00

We are back in the playoffs after a 26 year drought. I was in 3rd grade when the Brewers made their run to the World Series in 1982, and remember every moment of the ALCS and World Series. What an emotional season this has been -- slow start, hot middle, slump in September, firing of Yost, and then the amazing finish.

I don't care if LaPorta turns into an All-Star because CC was worth everything that we paid for him.

A detailed playoff preview will be posted on Monday or Tuesday.

Who Gets The 9th?

2008-09-28T06:43:00.003-05:00

Pretend you are interim manager Dale Sveum, and you have 1 run lead in the 9th inning and are looking at your bullpen options --- Solomon Torres and Eric Gagne --- who would you choose? Now before you say that is an easy choice, lets take a look at some #'s.

In Torres last 10 outings he has went 8.2 innings (failing to make it a full inning in two of those outings). He has been scored upon in five of those outings, and three times given up at least 3 runs. Over those 8.2 innings he has allowed 12 earned runs, has 6 Ks and 5 BB, and only has 2 saves. Definitely not the dominating closer that Ned Yost saw during the middle of the season.

In Gagne's last 10 outings he has 9.2 innings (only failed to make it a full inning in one outing). He has been scored upon in only 1 outing, and it was a single run given up -- so over his last 9.2 innings he has only allowed one earned run (which was on September 5). His K:BB ratio is 3:1 (9 K's and 3 BB) over his last 10 games.

This is a tough choice, and my opinion is that you give the ball to Gagne in the toughest spot (whether that be the 8th inning or 9th inning) depending on when the Cubs heart of the order comes up. I realize that 10 games is a small sample size, but it really looks like Torres is out of gas and that Gagne (and his 10 million dollars) should be getting the ball in the biggest late game situation today.

Wow! I can't believe that I just said that!

In C.C. We Trust

2008-09-27T21:38:00.002-05:00

CC Sabathia is charting territory that has very rarely been reached -- he will surpass the 3700 pitch mark in his start against the Chicago Cubs in the 162nd game of the season - and could/probably will surpass the 3800 pitch mark. Obviously CC must be running on fumes, but he has proven to be "the man" in his brief time with the club.

Sabathia has had a decreased strike% in each of his last three starts -- 70.7%, 66.7%, 64.8%, so there must be some concern about him facing off against the Cubs "A" team (or I am assuming that they will play their "A" after running their "B" out against the Brewers on Saturday). In those three starts he has went 1-2, losing to the Cubs and Reds, and beating the Pirates.

In two starts against the Cubs this season he is 0-1, with a -.433 WPA. He does have a 4:1 K:BB ratio, with 5 Ks and 0 BB coming in his last start against them.

The last time that the Cubs hitters faced CC they attacked him early in the count, but I would expect them to take pitches and try to increase CC's pitch count early in the game to get to the Brewers bullpen by the 6th inning.

Expect Manny Parra, Seth McClung, and possibly Dave Bush to be used after CC is removed from the game.

Both the Brewers and Mets should be favored in their games, but they are earlier similar teams who have streaky offenses, questionable defensive play at times, and shaky bullpens. Sunday is going to be a VERY interesting day for the baseball fans in Milwaukee -- so enjoy the game. Our playoffs start on Sunday!

Baby Break

2008-09-27T11:21:00.002-05:00

My wife and I had a baby girl a little over 6 weeks ago, so my "free" time has been severly limited to research and write on this blog. However, the baby is now is a pretty set sleeping pattern, so I should be able to return to random writings.

My first post will come later this evening/early morning, and will be either:
1. A preview of tomorrow's crucial games
- OR -
2. A preview of the Brewers in the playoffs

*I am hoping for option #2!

Which Brewers Are Clutch?

2008-09-06T18:44:00.002-05:00

Baseball is a game of numbers, and most of those numbers show that over the history of time that a "clutch" player really doesn't exist. You might remember an at-bat or a play, that seemed to stick in your mind to make a player clutch -- but statistics that show a player is "clutch" will probably regress to the players normal numbers over time.

With that being said, my favorite site "FanGraphs" has a category of "clutch" and they calculate it the following way....

"Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment."

So using their statistic, I will list how each Brewer player is rated in high leverage situations....

Rickie Weeks +.94/-1.76
Bill Hall +.64/+2.81
Ray Durham +.40/+2.26
Ryan Braun +.09/-1.63 (2008 season/career)
JJ Hardy +.37/-.25
Prince Fielder -.08/-.05
Gabe Kapler -.20/-1.84
Russell Branyan -.23/-1.50
Jason Kendall -.50/+5.72
Craig Counsell -.54/+1.44
Mike Cameron -.56/-3.32
Corey Hart -1.23/-2.03

Looking at the data, Rickie Weeks has been the most clutch Brewer hitter this season, but historically isn't big in key situations. Ray Durham has shown productivity in big situations both this season, and over his career. Jason Kendall isn't performing well in the clutch this season, but has an amazing +5.72 in clutch situations over his career. Mike Cameron and Corey Hart are rated as poor players in high leverage situations both for this season and in their careers.

Given the numbers above, I would still rather have Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder come up in the big situations than Ray Durham, but those are the numbers.

Analysis: Jake Peavy

2008-08-14T09:35:00.004-05:00

The Brewers will go for a road sweep against the San Diego Padres this afternoon, but Jake Peavy stands in their way. The battle of Ben Sheets and Peavy should be one of the top pitching match-ups that we will see on the Brewers schedule this season.

Peavy is coming off a 19-6, 2.54, 9.67K/9 season and while his win-loss record is not as good, standing at 8-8, his other numbers are all still very strong. His ERA stands at a mere 2.68, his K/9 is at 8.81, opponents are only hitting .235 against him.

What has changed for Peavy? Well he isn't getting the run support this season, 2.6 runs this season compared to 4.3 last season. His HR/FB is back to a normal level, after sitting at an amazing 5.8 last season.

Peavy will throw a fastball, slider, cutter, and mix in a rare change. His fastball averages 92 mph, and he throws it 57% of the time. He has found the strike zone at a rate of 63% this season, with is down two percentage points from last season.

This should be an amazing battle, and it will be interesting to see if Peavy avoids a red hot Prince Fielder at all costs or challenges him with the attitude of nothing to lose.

Opponent Analysis: Tim Redding

2008-08-08T23:15:00.002-05:00

Tim Redding (8-6 4.44) will take the hill against Ben Sheets on Saturday. Redding will be facing the Brewers for the 2nd time this season, and he did not fair well in his first outing against the Crew (5.2 IP 5 ER but did post a 7:1 K:BB).

Redding is an average pitcher, who just happened to be the Nationals best starter in 2007. He is hittable (.273 batting average against, .279 career) and has an average 2.00 K/BB ratio. He has a 1.11 GB/FB ratio, so their isn't much of a tendency one way or the other.

Redding will challenge the hitters with a fastball 63% of the time (averaging 91 mph), slider 19%, curve 11.5, and an occasional change 6.5%. Redding will work the corners and only hit the zone on 61% of his pitches.

If Redding was facing Suppan or Bush, then the Nationals could have a shot, but with Ben Sheets on the mound this is a game that the Brewers should win (and must win).

Opponent Analysis: Collin Balester

2008-08-08T00:16:00.003-05:00

Collin Balester (2-3 4.55) is one of the top pitching prospects for the Washington Nationals, and he will take the hill on Friday Night against the Milwaukee Brewers and CC Sabathia. Balester will be making his 7th major league start, and is a tall lanky pitcher (6-5 190 pounds).

Balester will challenge the Brewer hitters with a 92 mph fastball (65% of his pitches), curve (20%), and change (15%). The key for him is to throw strikes, and he is doing at a sub-par 60.6% of pitches. He does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground -- 49.1% ground ball rate, and is limiting the line drives to 16%. The 22 starter has been allowed to go over 100 pitches in two of his six starts, but usually stays in the 95 range.

Balester is a capable young pitcher that is over matched by his mound opposition on Friday, but he could frustrate the Brewer hitters some as he did in his last two outings when he limited the Phillies and Reds to 3 earned runs over 11.1 innings.

Opponent Analysis: Homer Bailey

2008-08-05T23:25:00.002-05:00

The Brewers enter the rubber game with the Cincinnati Reds and get the opportunity to face Homer Bailey (0-5 7.55) in the swing game. Bailey was recently a hot prospect, but has not lived up to the hype. I will examine him a little closer before he goes against the Brewers on Wednesday.

Bailey has a big fastball (91.1 mph this season) and he relies on it at a clip of 70.6% of his pitches. Now very few starting pitchers can only rely on their fastball, and Bailey has proven that he isn't one of them. Why is he throwing his fastball so much? Well, he has been able to throw it for a strike this year -- his SZ% (Strike Zone %) is at 64% which is up over his 59% in limited action last season. He did throw his fastball at about the same rate last season, but seems to be able to get it over more this year. He has added a slider to arsenal of pitches, but his game is the fastball (which has been very hittable).

Bailey on lasts between 4-5 innings per start this season and averages around 18 pitches per innings. While I said last night that the Brewers should be patient with Edinson Volquez (and they were), I think that they should be aggressive against Bailey and sit on the fastball even though he has a high BB/9 rate.

Opponent Analysis: Edinson Volquez

2008-08-05T12:22:00.002-05:00

Edinson Volquez has turned himself into the young National League pitching phenomenon this season after a trade from the Texas Rangers that saw the Cincinnati Reds give up slugger Josh Hamilton. Volquez presents a major problem for the Brewers, as he is a pitching that uses his change-up often and his a high K/9.

Looking at Volquez....
With a 2.71 ERA on the season, you would think that he just mows through the hitters and baffles the majority of them with his outstanding change. This is not the case though -- Volquez averages slightly over 17 pitches per inning and only hits the strike zone at a clip of 61% (similar P/IP and SZ% numbers as Manny Parra). The key for the Brewers when they face Volquez will be to be patient, not something that they are good at (they rank 20th in MLB in BB).

Volquez brings a fastball 57% of the time, and it averages 93.3 mph this season. He mixes in his change at a rate of 31% and has a -11 mph speed difference from his fastball to change. He throws his change-up more than any other starting pitcher in the majors, and ranks 11th in fastball velocity for starting pitchers. The amazing thing about Volquez is that his arm angle does not change at all when he throws his pitches -- which has led to his amazing success this season.

Edinson Volquez has a 13-4 record on the season, and is not unbeatable -- but the Milwaukee Brewers will need to be patient and try to get his pitch count up early in the game to get to the Reds bullpen.

The August Schedule

2008-08-01T17:43:00.002-05:00

Well that four game series with the Cubs truly sucked!!! Time to move on and take a look at what August holds for the Brewers as they enter the month tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for the Wild Card spot, with the New York Mets only 1.5 games behind them.

27 Games
10 Home Games (longest home stand is 6 games in 7 days)
17 Road Games (a pair of six game road trips)

@ Atlanta
@ Cincinnati
vs Washington
@ San Diego
@ LA Dodgers
vs Houston
vs Pittsburgh
@ St. Louis
@ Pittsburgh

In reality the month should be easy for the Brewers if they can take care of business on the road. The only real playoff contenders that they will see are the LA Dodgers (who are only contenders because they are in the weak NL West) and the St. Louis Cardinals in a brief two game set.

CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets Spots
Aug 2 and Aug 3 in Atlanta
Aug 8 and Aug 9 vs Washington
Aug 13 and Aug 14 in San Diego
Aug 18 and Aug 19 vs Houston
Aug 23 and Aug 24 vs Pittsburgh (assuming that they pitch every 5th day and one of the other SP is skipped)
Aug 29 and Aug 30 in Pittsburgh (see above)

The nice thing is that the Brewers really don't have to worry about the pitch counts for CC or Sheets down the stretch of the season, as neither of them will mostly be with the club in 2009. So run them out there every 5th day and let them go 120 pitches if needed.

Brewers WPA

2008-07-27T10:17:00.003-05:00

Here are the WPA for the Brewers players heading into the Sunday afternoon game with the Houston Astros.

Hitters
2.36 - Ryan Braun
1.51 - Prince Fielder
1.28 - JJ Hardy
1.22 - Rickie Weeks
0.93 - Mike Cameron
0.82 - Gabe Kapler
0.50 - Russell Branyan
0.23 - Bill Hall
0.08 - Mike Rivera

-0.12 - Corey Hart
-0.15 - Ray Durham
-0.61 - Craig Counsell
-1.26 - Jason Kendall

Starting Pitchers
2.18 - Ben Sheets
1.46 - CC Sabathia
0.77 - Manny Parra
0.04 - Seth McClung

-0.35 - Jeff Suppan
-1.20 - Dave Bush

Relief Pitchers
1.94 - Salomon Torres
0.90 - Carlos Villanueva
0.45 - David Riske
0.03 - Brian Shouse
-0.49 - Eric Gagne
-1.11 - Guillermo Mota

Scouting: Kyle Lohse

2008-07-22T15:58:00.002-05:00

Dave Duncan is considered to be one of the best pitching coaches in the world, but the turn around that he has done on Kyle Lohse is beyond belief. Before this season Lohse was a -11 SP with his last winning season coming for the Minnesota Twins in 2003. His career ERA stands at 4.68 (including this season), but look at his current numbers of 12-2 with a 3.35 ERA and you have to think that he will regress to the mean down the stretch.

Looking at his interior numbers for any changes and we find the following:
-His K/BB ratio is almost exactly on his career average of 2.01, his BB/9 is down, but so is his K/9.
-His HR/9 is standing at 0.64, which is far below his career average of 1.16
-He has been the beneficiary of some good luck as his LD% is at 20.9% and his BABIP is only .287
-A big factor is his increase in ground balls and reduction of fly balls, and a HR/FB rate of 6.8% (career 10%)
-He has used his fastball more and reduced the number of change-ups he is throwing.

He throws four pitches:
Fastball - 60% @ 91 mph
Slider - 22%
Change - 11%
Curve - 7%

Lohse is not this good, whether the Brewers will show that he is a mediocre pitcher is tough to say, but don't expect him to be the ace for the Cardinals as they close out the 2008 season.

Scouting: Joel Pineiro

2008-07-21T15:09:00.004-05:00

The Brewers will face Joel Pineiro in the first game of a HUGE four game series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Pineiro is a +4 pitcher for his career, but his last real productive season was 2003 in Seattle, since then he has become a very average starting pitcher.

Pineiro will throw a lot of strikes at a pace of 66%, and will throw four pitches:
Fastball - 55% - 89 mph
Slider - 22%
Curve - 13%
Change - 10%

He has lasted 6 innings on average, and has thrown an average of 88 pitches per outing. About 50% of his outs via contact come on ground balls, and his HR/FB rate is lower than it ever has been before (it should rise in the 2nd half).

Look for the Brewers to do some damage against Pineiro, but the real issue will be how his opponent Seth McClung can control the strike zone.

Durham vs Weeks

2008-07-21T15:01:00.002-05:00

I personally think that the addition of Ray Durham is going to be HUGE for the Brewers down the stretch as it should give them not only a switch hitter of the bench, but a legit 2B and lead-off hitter. I think that Durham should steal the majority of Weeks time for the remainder of the season, as Weeks has failed to produce this season in the lead-off role.

Durham is a switch hitter that has an OBP of .385 this season -- career .352. Durham is on the decline of his career, as he is posting the highest K% of his career, but he is also hitting more line drives than in recent years and his .293 batting average is for real. His power is decreasing to a very low 4.3 HR/FB, but he should enjoy the more hitter friendly Miller Park and should see his ISO increase beyond the .122 level it is at now.

Will Durham steal the majority of Weeks playing time? How will Weeks handle a reserve role (if it happens)? These are all situations that Ned Yost must maneuver as he attempts to lead the Brewers into the playoffs in 2008 and still keep the emotions in check for future seasons.

All-Star Team Report

2008-07-17T11:39:00.002-05:00

Once again I have to start this post by saying "Sorry for the lack of posts", but thanks to those of you that have read the blog over the season.

Today we will look at the Brewer batters and how they have performed during the 1st half of the season......

Catcher - Jason Kendall
He is batting .258 with 1 HR on the season with an OPS of .673. His defense is much better than anyone expected, and his bat is average at best. He isn't going to hit for any power, and his average will only climb slightly. What you saw in the 1st half is what you should expect in the 2nd half.
GRADE: C+

First Base - Prince Fielder
His 2008 season is looking a lot like his 2006 season, and that 50 HR 2007 season was a rare outburst from him. Don't expect a huge power surge from him in the 2nd half, but a statline of .270 and 30 HR is what you should figure he will finish with.
GRADE: B

Second Base - Rickie Weeks
His defense is much improved, but he is having a horrible offensive season. He is truly the weak link for club at the plate this season, as his OPS is .687 and his OBP has fallen to .320. The Brewers might have to look at upgrading at 2B/lead-off hitter down the stretch for them to be serious contenders.
GRADE: D

Third Base - Bill Hall/Russel Branyan
The platoon of Hall and Branyan has produce 23 HR and 58 RBI. While the average is never going to be great, the duo has shown some power that can change a game. They will both strike out a bunch, but the power their OPS will offset the lack of contact (.725 Hall/.934 Branyan).
GRADE: B

Shortstop - JJ Hardy
Many thought that Hardy's 2007 season was a career year, but his interior numbers show that he is a legit 25 HR guy that will hit in the .270 range. His average will dip slightly in the 2nd half, but the power is for real.
GRADE: B+

Left Field - Ryan Braun
No sophomore slump for Braun, as he is arguably the best Brewer player on the team. His HR/FB has dipped some from last year, so I would expect a few more homers as we move towards the conclusion of the 2008 season. His batting average was high last season, and expect him to finish around the .285 he is batting now.
GRADE: A-

Center Field - Mike Cameron
Cameron has enjoyed his first non-pitchers park in a long time and has a 19.4 HR/FB up from the 11.9 HR/FB he posted as a member of the San Diego Padres, but it shouldn't be that high so expect his power to dip some. His average is lower than it should be, so expect his average to climb slightly to the .245 range.
GRADE: B-

Right Field - Corey Hart
Corey is being more aggressive at the plate this season and his numbers are down slightly from last year, but he will still be a 25/25 guy when the season concludes. Hart has been one of the most consistent Brewers during the course of the season posting an OPS of at least .750 in each month of the season. While players seem to have good months and bad months, you can always count on Corey Hart to produce each month.
GRADE: B+

Sabathia Debut

2008-07-08T22:37:00.003-05:00

The Brewers walked away with the "W" in Sabathia's first start as a Brewer. It was rocky at times, but he worked his way out of trouble most of the night without giving up much damage. Sabathia threw 97 pitches over six innings. His 16.1 pitches per inning is slightly higher than his 15.8 average for the season, so he will have the tendency to work himself in and out of trouble. He threw 58% of the pitches for strikes, which is below his 66% season average.

11 of his 13 outs in play were via ground balls -- he has a 1.23 career GB/FB ratio, which helps him work out of jams by creating double play situations.

This was no a good start for Sabathia, his nerves might have gotten the best of him, but the club got the win in an off start -- so expect his next start to be better as the Brewers attempt to catch the Chicago Cubs for first place.

CC Sabathia a Brewer?

2008-07-05T21:59:00.002-05:00

Once again, I will say sorry for the lack of posts lately. My real life has been extremely busy, and I haven't found much time to analyze and write about the Brewers. Heck, I have missed a few games lately (but did catch that terrible 9th inning loss to the D-Backs in the finale of that series).

The talks of CC Sabathia being traded to the Brewers is a big topic that is making the waves right now. I seriously have not made my mind up what the Brewers should do, but will "talk" through some of the process in this post.

CC Sabathia is having a great season, after a terrible start to the year, he is the premier pitcher in the American League now that Johan Santana is playing with the New York Mets. Sabathia will be a free agent at the end of the season, and the Brewers will probably not be able to sign either Sabathia or Ben Sheets (according to reports). I think that Brewers might be able to get Sheets to sign, but Sabathia will be looking for Santana money (something that many teams will be reluctant to do because of what has happened with Barry Zito). Sabathia is averaging more than a K per inning, and throws a 94.5 mph fastball, slider, and change. He hits the strike zone on 66% of his pitches, and will give his team a great chance to win every time that he takes the mound.

The Brewers will probably have to give up top prospect Matt LaPorta who was the Brewers #1 pick in the 2007 MLB Draft, and is ripping up AA with 20 HRs so far. LaPorta is slotted to be a corner outfielder in the majors, but could also play first base without a problem. The future for LaPorta is extremely bright on paper, but he doesn't have a position at this time unless the Brewers are willing to shift Corey Hart to center field and go with an outfield of Braun, Hart, and LaPorta in the near future.

Taylor Green (High A) is the other player that MLB.com is reporting that would be included in the deal. Green is in his 3rd professional season, and is batting .294 with 9 HRs. He has shown the ability to take a walk (11.7% of the time in his minor league PAs) and has decreased his K% even moving up a level (from 16.4% in A-ball, to 13.8% in high A-ball this year).

If the Brewers could make this deal without moving LaPorta then it would be a steal, but that isn't happening. The Brewers need Sabathia to make a serious run if they make the playoffs, and a rotation of Sheets, Sabathia, Parra/Suppan would be one of the best. The Brewers would get compensation in the 2009 draft if they were not able to sign Sheets and/or Sabathia, so it would not be a total loss. If the club really thinks that they have a chance, then I think that they will pull the trigger on the deal, but if they question if they have the team to make it to the playoffs then I doubt that they will risk losing a prospect like LaPorta.

Series Preview: Brewers (43-35) @ Minnesota (42-36)

2008-06-26T16:57:00.002-05:00

Everyone expected the Brewers to be in contention for the NL Central crown or the NL Wildcard, but nobody expect the Minnesota Twins to be 6 games above .500 and in 2nd place by only .5 games in the AL Central with the best pitcher in baseball being trades in the off-season.

The leader of the Brewers: Ryan Braun (.287-20-57)
The youngster is only in his 2nd season, but has been the biggest star for the Brewers this season. He is 2nd on the team in batting average, and leads the team in HR and RBI. He has been consistent over the past 10 games with the bat, but his 2 HRs were hit in the same game.

The leader of the Twins: Justin Morneau (.305-11-59)
Morneau has developed into one of the top 1B in the game, and is a lock to hit 30+ HR and 100+ RBI every year. He is 2nd on the team in average and HRs, and leads the Twins in RBI. He has seen his numbers decrease slightly over the last 10 games, and has only hit 1 HR during that time frame.

Friday: Seth McClung vs Nick Blackburn
This is the polar opposite of starting pitchers -- McClung can bring the heat and dominate the strikes outs, but is always a risk to walk a large number of batters. Blackburn is a control pitcher that makes hitters earn their way on.

Saturday: Manny Parra vs Livian Hernandez
Parra has turned into the top young pitcher that he was suppose to be, but he is much better at home than on the road. Livian is a workhorse pitcher that statistically doesn't look dominate, but continues to win through the course of his career. This is looking like this will be the season that the wheels finally fall off though.

Sunday: Ben Sheets vs Kevin Slowey
Sheets continues to be one of the best starting pitchers in the game, and will try to dominate hitters with his plus curve. Slowey is coming off his best outing of the season, and has the potential to be a top notch pitcher like Sheets. Sheets will be favored, but Slowey looks like he will be able to pitch with him during this game.

Brewer Starting Pitchers: Home/Road Splits

2008-06-23T10:53:00.003-05:00

While the Brewer bats didn't show a significant difference in their home/road splits for most hitters, with the major factor being the difference in the splits for Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. We will look at the starting pitchers and examine if their home/road splits are the reason for the Brewers struggle on the road.

The Brewer SP's home/road splits for OPS against jumps off the stat sheet immediately. Three pitchers (Sheets, Suppan, and Parra) have an OPS against of under .700 at home, while only two pitchers (Sheets and McClung) have OBS against under .700 on the road.

Ben Sheets (.669 OPS against @ home/.652 OPS against on road) - Sheets is great no matter where he is pitching and I am glad to see him get the opening start on the upcoming road trip.

Jeff Suppan (.660/.898) - Suppan does great at home, but gets completely lit up on the road and we should fear every road start that he takes the hill.

Manny Parra (.616/1.063) - This does not include his last start against the Orioles, but he is the most dominating Brewer SP at home, but is the worst Brewer SP on the road.

Dave Bush (.718/.887) - He is serviceable at home, but needs more run support to be effective on the road.

Seth McClung (.814/.506) - His stat line includes both starts and relief appearance. He is the worst Brewer starter at home, but is phenomenal on the road. No assumptions should be made about his stat lines though as he doesn't have nearly the number of starts as the other SPs.

As a team, the Brewers are amazingly much worse on the road than at home (.529 OPS against points if you factor them straight across the board). I doubt that McClung continues his dominating road split, but the key factor is to have Suppan, Parra, and Bush be more competitive on the road. The Brewer struggles on the road can be attributed to the lack of effectiveness of Parra, Suppan, and Bush on the road and Ryan Braun's mediocre .705 road OPS.

Brewer Hitters: Home/Road Splits

2008-06-22T13:15:00.002-05:00

If the Brewers can find a way to play better on the road then they should be the Wild Card team out of the NL this season. If they can find a way to be successful on the road, then they should challenge the Chicago Cubs for the NL Central title.

The Brewers are 24-13 at home, but 16-21 on the road. Most playoff teams play at least .500 ball on the road -- and that will be a key for the Brewers on their upcoming road trip which takes them to Atlanta, Minnesota, and Arizona.

I will use OPS (On Base + Slugging Percentage) as my evaluation stat to analyze the hitters.

C - Jason Kendall (.708 HOME/.702 ROAD) -- no major difference
1B - Prince Fielder (.977/.774) -- Fielder is an All-Star at home, and a mediocre 1B on the road.
2B - Rickie Weeks (.594/.755) -- Weeks has been terrible at Miller Park, but might jump start the road trip for the Brewers.
3B - Russell Branyan (1.420/.810) -- Amazing at home in limited ABs, but solid on the road as well.
3B - Bill Hall (.791/.585) -- Pretty good OPS at home, but useless on the road.
SS - JJ Hardy (.699/.671) -- no significant difference -- but neither OPS is very good.
IF - Craig Counsell (.655/.766) -- he is making a push to get more playing time on the road.
IF - Joe Dillon (.513/.869) -- HORRIBLE at Miller, but great on the road. Pushing for road ABs.
LF - Ryan Braun (1.095/.705) -- Braun goes from a Hall of Famer at Miller to a below average hitter on the road.
CF - Mike Cameron (.520/.931) -- Doesn't play well at Miller at all, but playing like an All-Star on the road.
RF - Corey Hart (.688/.953) -- Below average at home, but very good on the road.
OF - Gabe Kapler (.865/.889) -- no significant difference.

The Brewer hitters are .115 OPS points better at home, and of the 12 major bats six are better at home, and six are better on the road. The key seems to get Fielder and Braun to hit better on the road for the team to have more success, but I was surprised that the difference in the team OPS was not more.

I will examine the starting pitchers home/road splits tomorrow evening, as I think that has more significance on their road troubles after looking at the hitting numbers.

Brewers WPA 6/15/2008

2008-06-15T10:39:00.002-05:00

Hopefully the Brewers will get their first interleague victory today, but with Seth McClung (+.18 WPA) on the mound it is either going to be great or terrible. Scott Baker (+.86 WPA) is 2-1 in 8 starts with a 3.60 ERA. He will challenge the Brewer hitters with a 90 mph FB and sliders, but mix in curves and changes 8% of the time. With a 25 LD% he should have a BABIP of .370, but his BABIP is hovering at .283 so he has run into good luck.

Here are the WPA Leaders for the Brewer bats thru game played 6/14/2008.....

1.38 Ryan Braun
1.37 Prince Fielder
1.29 Gabe Kapler
.59 Joe Dillon
.44 Russell Branyan
.07 Rickie Weeks

-.07 Mike Rivera
-.15 Hernan Iribarren
-.19 Corey Hart
-.24 Mike Cameron
-.51 JJ Hardy
-.55 Craig Counsell
-.56 Jason Kendall
-.67 Bill Hall

Pitcher Analysis: Kevin Slowery

2008-06-12T21:45:00.001-05:00

Kevin Slowery is a 6-3, 24 year old, right handed pitcher. He has had a successful minor league career, and is looking to translate that into the major leagues. He had a successful debut season going 4-1 record with a 4.73 ERA in 2007. This season he has not been able to improve on in early success -- he is 2-6 with a 5.15 ERA. In the minors he was unhittable, but that has not been the case in the bigs.

Slowery throws strikes at 67% and doesn't walk very many batters. He is a fly ball pitcher, and 12.9% of the fly balls go for home runs. Part of his troubles at the big league level might be that he doesn't change speeds good enough. The average speed of his fastball is 89.5 mph, and the average speed of his change is 81.9 mph -- the difference is not enough to fool hitters enough (I always expect a difference of 10 mph between a FB and change).

He will throw four pitches:
Fastball - 69% @ 89.5 mph
Slider - 15%
Curve - 9%
Change - 7%

Slowery should be a pitcher that the Brewer bats should enjoy -- he will throw a lot of strikes, and not make them chase the balls out of the zone too much. Slowery is coming off his worst outing of the season, and if Dave Bush is decent then the Brewers should do well during the Friday Night opener.

Update

2008-06-12T17:29:00.003-05:00

Sorry for the lack of posting, but I have been extremely busy and hope to add some content to the site this weekend.....

*Nice to see the Brewers take 2 of 3 from the Astros (ON THE ROAD!!!)
*The Brewers will open a 9 game (10 day) home stand against the American League.

Pitching Match-Ups this weekend (against the Twins):
6/13 Dave Bush vs Kevin Slowery
6/14 Jeff Suppan vs Glen Perkins
6/15 Seth McClung vs Scott Baker

I will post an in-depth preview of the series later tonight or tomorrow evening.

Jeff Francis Analysis

2008-06-08T08:29:00.002-05:00

I enjoy going and doing some opponent analysis because sometimes I am way off on my opinion of a player. Today happens to be one of those times where I am completely wrong.... I am sure that my wife would like to read that. I always thought that Francis was a heat pitcher that could flat dominate you with a fastball, but after breaking him down I found that this isn't the case.

Jeff Francis (2-5 5.53) will start against Jeff Suppan in the finale of a three game series on Sunday. The Rockies will be looking for a sweep and have their team ace on the mound to do it. Francis has never had a losing season in his four seasons in the big leagues, so expect him to rebound again this year. He was a +13 pitcher before this season, and has a career 4.77 ERA (including this season). So while he isn't dominant, he is good enough to beat the opposing team on most occasions.

He has a healthy K/9 of 7.03 this season, which is higher than his career average of 6.35, but he is walking more batters this year 3.52 BB/9 than any previous season. He is hittable with a .286 average against, and will give up the long ball at a clip of 13.5% per fly ball.

He has abandoned his slider, and is now a fastball, change, and curve pitcher. He fastball averages 86 mph, and he will throw it 60% of the time. He will throw the change 27% of the time, and his curve 13% of the time. He works around the zone and finds the strike zone at a rate of 62% (which is in line with his career average). Francis works 102 pitches per outing on average, and will look to go 6 innings on most starts.

The Brewers will need to be patient, and attack Francis when he makes a mistake in the zone. The club is 12-6 against lefty starters, so this is a game that they should be able to be competitive in and avoid the sweep. Jeff Suppan has been terrible on the road, but look for the Brewers to win in a high scoring game.

Brewer Hitters with RISP

2008-06-07T13:53:00.003-05:00

Beware of small sample sizes when comparing specific stat categories for a given year. We will examine the Brewer hitters in the situation of having RISP for this season, and over their careers. Note that some of the players have very brief careers to look back at also, and I am only looking at the major playing time batters at this time.

2008 Batting Average versus 2008 Batting Average with Runners In Scoring Position
Corey Hart +56 pts
Jason Kendall +30 pts
Ryan Braun +13 pts
Bill Hall +1pt

Prince Fielder -9 pts
Mike Cameron -28 pts
Rickie Weeks -34 pts
JJ Hardy - 84 pts
Russell Branyan -156 pts

Hart has truly been killing the ball with RISP, so I can see why people don't want him out of the #5 hole at this time. JJ Hardy has been horrible with RISP, and you would hope that he will improve as he gets more chances to hit with RISP.

Career Average versus Career Average with RISP
Corey Hart +26 pts
Mike Cameron +14 pts
Ryan Braun +8 pts
JJ Hardy +7 pts

Jason Kendall -6 pts
Prince Fielder -8 pts
Bill Hall -14 pts
Russell Branyan - 14pts
Rickie Weeks -33 pts

Hart once again leads the team with improving his batting with RISP, and Braun finds himself on the + column in both 2008 and career. Prince is a worse hitter with RISP, but still one of the better Brewers to have in that situation, throughout his career and during the 2008 season. Rickie Weeks is about -33 for both the 2008 season and has career. It seems that we should expect JJ Hardy to improve on his -84 with RISP during the 2008 season, because he has a +7 throughout his brief career.

Brewers Draft 2008 Top 15 Picks

2008-06-07T07:22:00.003-05:00

A summary of the Milwaukee Brewers Top 15 Draft picks for the 2008 MLB Draft. I have never seen these player play before, so the reports are taken from MLB.com or the Scouting Video on MLB.com.

16. Brett Lawrie - HS - C - Probably will play catcher, and has a plus bat with power.
32. Jacob Odorizzi - HS - P - Good delivery, has four pitches, has the frame to build upon.
35. Evan Frederickson - JR - P - 6 foot 6 inch lefty. High leg kick, didn't reach 90 on MLB video, but ball seems to jump some.
53. Seth Lintz - HS - P - Can throw lower 90's.
54 - Cuter Dykstra - HS - CF - Son of Lenny Dykstra. Showed well during BP, + speed.
62 - Thomas Adams - JR - SP
94 - Logan Schaefer - JR - CF
128 - Joshua Ramanski - JR - OF/P
158 - Maverick Lasker - HS - P - Big time arm, had injuries during senior season.
188 - Jose Duran - JR - SS
218 - Steven Watten - JR - P
248 - Erik Komatsu - JR - OF
278 - Michael Bowman - JR - P
308 - Gregory Miller - JR - P
338 - Michael Mersecco - JR - SS

8-1 Homestand Saves Ned

2008-06-04T23:20:00.002-05:00

I obviously have no inside information, but it seems that Ned Yost was on the verge of being canned as the manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, but the teams impressive 8-1 run at home definitely saved his job to at least the All-Star break. With the run the Brewers moved into 3rd place in the NL Central, are now four games over .500, and find themselves 6 games behind the Chicago Cubs. The team has shown the ability to play well at home, but must find a way to win on the road if they are to reach the playoffs this season --- and how good does that sound to be talking playoff chances again instead of how to move out of the cellar of the NL Central!

The Brewers will travel to Colorado to play three games with the Colorado Rockies, and then travel to Houston to play the Astros. They were swept in Houston less than a month ago, and the Brewers swept the Astros a week ago -- should make for a very interesting series.

I am going to pst some analysis work tomorrow night -- so please come back and check it out.

Bill Hall and Seth McClung

2008-06-03T23:37:00.002-05:00

As I was traveling tonight, I had the Brewers game on XM and heard Uecker talk about how Bill Hall's agent had requested a trade, and had said that he speaks for his client. When Hall was questioned by the media he said that he had no comment on the issue. Personally, I think that is the biggest load of crap answer that I have ever read. If you want a trade, then say you want to be traded. It is obvious that he believes that he should be a everyday player for the Brewers, and at times I agree with him. Hall has does everything for the Brewers, he moved from the infield to center field and now back to the infield, only to see himself fall into the wrong side of a platoon with Russ Branyan. Hall has always been a team player, but he hasn't played like a regular this year (at least not on a contending team), so I think that he should be "man" enough to either say for himself that he wants to be traded, or keep working the make the Brewers a quality NL team in what capacity that he can.

In other news, I was surprised to see the Brewers (with Seth McClung pitching) get the victory over the D-Backs. The D-Backs are a terrible road team, much like the Brewers, but the Randy Johnson-Seth McClung match-up did not favor the home team. McClung however once again showed he was able to find the strike zone on 67% pitches, and when he can reach 65%+ level then he is a solid pitcher. It is going to be a wild ride with McClung in the rotation, but maybe he will prove me wrong and show that he is a viable member of the team in 2008.

Manny Parra

2008-05-31T09:06:00.004-05:00

First let me apologize for the "blah" looking charts. I will try to make them look better in the future. Manny Parra moved to a 3-2 record last night, so I thought that I would look at two key areas for him.

First we will look at the # of pitches that he has been allowed to throw. He has had a history of injuries, so it is expect that the Brewers will use him with some caution. Parra was allowed to work 95 pitches during his first start on 4/5, but has only broke the 100 pitch barrier 3 times in 11 starts (27%). I really don't see a pattern of usage with him, other than that the club is reluctant to let him pitch over 100 pitches in a game, and likes to get the pen some work when he starts (as he has only went over 6 innings on one occasion).

Parra 's has great stuff and the key for his success is to get his pitches over the plate on a consistent basis. He has a season strike percentage of 58% (we would like to see him around 61-62 to be a consistent starter). In the four games that he has surpassed the 60% barrier he is 2-0, 20 Ks, and 8 BB. While much will start to be made of his Home/Road split, the key for him will be his ability to throw strikes. Good news for the Brewer fans is that he has reached the 60% barrier in 3 of his last 4 starts, so maybe Parra will emerge as the "Yovanni of 2008".

My Brewers Batting Order

2008-05-30T20:33:00.002-05:00

With the Brewers offense struggling, and a major topic of debate, I figured I would throw out my opinion on what the line-up should be.....

1. Corey Hart - Hart is the 2nd on the team of regulars in OBP with a .357 average. I am sure some would argue that a 6-5 guy should not lead-off, but Hart has proven that he can get on base, and has the ability to steal a base or easily go 1st to 3rd on a single.

2. Jason Kendall - Kendall has a career OBP of .374, but he hasn't reached that mark since 2004. He is a player on the decline, but he still has the ability to put the ball in play and still has above average speed. He only strikes out 7.8% of the time, so he should be able to work the count even though he only averages 3.6 pitches per plate appearance right now.

3. Ryan Braun - I agree with Yost;s initial thought that Fielder should be batting 3rd, but if Braun wants to bat 3rd and Fielder wants to bat 4th, then I would not screw with the two best bats on the team.

4. Prince Fielder - See above.

5. Mike Cameron - This is the Brewers weakest position because Hart has to move up to the lead-off spot because nobody else can get on base enough. With Fielder on the bases you need a player that can go deep and Cameron fits the bill because he currently has a .451 slugging percentage (which is close to his career average).

6. Bill Hall/Russel Branyan - I think that Hall should at least get 50% of the at bats, but Branyan has shown the ability to hit righties (something Hall hasn't done this season). Both guys are HR or nothing right now, and I would prefer if they batted in the 7 spot, but Hardy hasn't earned the 6 spot yet.

7. JJ Hardy - Hardy seems to be on the verge of breaking out, as he has improved his BB%, but his LD% has decreased, so it there is a reason for his low average right now.

8. PITCHER - I read "The Book", so I will agree that batting your pitcher 8th will produce a few extra runs per season and maybe steal a win or two.

9. Rickie Weeks - Weeks has increased his pitcher per plate appearance, but his increased patience has also kept his K% over 20%. With Weeks batting 9th, it would allow him to run freely, and also give Hart some RBI opportunities if Weeks ever gets straightened out. Weeks is still only 25 years old, so I would say a move to the 9 spot would decrease the high expectations some and allow him to relax and adjust to the game better.

McClung Stung In Lose

2008-05-29T22:23:00.003-05:00

Seth McClung made his 2nd start as a Brewer today. A move that I questioned when they moved a struggling Carlos Villanueva from the rotation to the pen.

McClung was brilliant in his debut, but was awful today....

He threw 85 pitches over 4.2 innings, and only found the strike zone on 48% of his pitches. YES you read that right 48% of his pitches!!! He walked six batters and only struck out one hitter, while giving up six earned runs.

In my opinion, Carlos Villanueva should not have been pulled from the rotation if they didn't have an adequate replacement. McClung was never considered to be the answer, and the only real chance they have is either via trade or calling up Jeff Weaver from AAA. Weaver isn't lighting up AAA and bringing him up doesn't guarantee better results. Villanueva has pitched well out of the bullpen, so they might not want to ruin a good thing. The team is in a tough situation with no clear cut 5th starter, and an almost guaranteed loss when McClung takes the mound.

In other disappointing news the offense only managed to score a single run for the second consecutive day. I will examine the Brewers line-up in depth tomorrow evening, and provide what I believe would be the ideal batting order for the team.

Analysis: Jeff Suppan

2008-05-28T16:53:00.002-05:00

Suppan has been under the microscope ever since he signed the big deal with the Brewers on December 24, 2006. Suppan had an average 2007 season, going 12-12 with a 4.47 ERA. He has always pitched much better at Miller Park than on the road, but there are a few red flags that we need to examine on him this season.

Suppan has never been a strikeout pitcher (which is OK), but his K/9 ratio is at an all-time low -- 4.01 K/9. His BB/9 is at the highest point of his career, standing at 3.70. He currently has 26 Ks and 24 BB, which is a ratio that very few pitchers can be successful with.

His velocity is down about one mile per hour (87 mph on his fastball), and he is throwing significantly fewer fastballs this season (47% this season compared to 60% during the 05-07 seasons). He has a new found faith in his slider, which he is throwing at a rate of 29.7% of his pitches.

The percent of pitches that he throws for strikes is at 59%, which is the first time in his career that he is below the 60% mark (his career average is 62%).

With all the negatives being tossed out there, he is giving up 19.1% of hits against him for line drives, which is a career low. His BABIP is in-line with his xBABIP, so there is no reason to think that his ERA will rise or decrease in the near future.

The decrease in velocity, K/9, and strikes thrown % all indicate that he is having some arm troubles, but given the fact that his LD% is at a career low maybe it can be related to the fact that he is using his slider more and still in an adjustment phases. It will be interesting to see how Suppan fares this season as he needs to step up and be the #2 starter with the lose of Yovani Gallardo.

Opponent Analysis: Jason Bergmann

2008-05-26T09:58:00.002-05:00

Jason Bergmann takes to the hill against Ben Sheets on the Memorial Day game. Bergmann is a tall righty, who strikes out almost a batter per inning, but doesn't throw hard. This will be Bergmann's 5th start on the season, and he has a 1-1 record. He has a career 5.06 ERA, so the Brewer bats should be able to knock him around.

The Brewers have a tendency to allow pitchers to go well above their K/9 rate when they pitch against the club, so expect Bergmann to find some holes in the Brewer bats today. The biggest problem for Bergmann is not his control, but his tendency to get pitches up in the zone and allow fly balls. 57.1% of balls put in play against him have been fly balls, and you can't do that now that the Nationals are not playing in RFK Stadium anymore.

Bergmann has shown better control this season hitting the strike zone of 66% of his pitches, which is significantly higher than his 62% career average. He will throw four pitches:

Fastball - 54.2% of the time at 89.6 mph
Slider - 20.9%
Curve - 14.7%
Change - 10.2%

Opponent Analysis: Tim Redding

2008-05-25T12:23:00.003-05:00

The Brewers will face Tim Redding today, so we will take a quick look at what we can expect from the opposing hurler. The 30 year old starter is 6-0 tall, and throws from the right side. He is in his 7th MLB season, after debuting in 2001 with the Houston Astros (the only year he didn't pitch in the majors was 2006). He has a lifetime record of 30-43, and a career ERA of 4.74.

This season Redding has become the best starter for the Nationals as he has posted a 6-3 record with a 3.16 ERA. He is still showing average K/9 and BB/9 ratios, but his key to success has been the ability to keep the ball on the ground. In 2008 he has a 1.23 GB/FB ratio, which is a career high. He has been extremely lucky giving up 16% LD, but only having a .234 BABIP (it is expected to be around .280).

He throws 61% of his pitches for strikes (which is the same as his career average). He will try to keep the Brewer batters off balance by throwing four pitches:

Fastball (91.1 mph) - 58.6% of pitches
Slider - 22.6%
Curveball - 11.5%
Change - 7.3%

Redding has averaged 5.7 innings per start, and averages 16.7 pitches per inning.

Team WPA

2008-05-25T07:54:00.003-05:00

Examing WPA of every Brewer that has played for the team this season......

Hitters
1.00 Ryan Braun
0.82 Prince Feilder
0.43 Gabe Gross*
0.40 Rickie Weeks
0.35 Gabe Kapler
0.18 Joe Dillon

-0.02 Tony Gwynn Jr*
-0.04 Mike Rivera
-0.04 Hernan Iribarren*
-0.18 Craig Counsell
-0.23 Corey Hart
-0.24 Mike Cameron
-0.35 Jason Kendall
-0.60 Bill Hall
-0.70 JJ Hardy

You know it is a pretty long season when you only have three starters with a positive WPA at this point in the season. It is surprising to see Corey Hart, who might be having the second best season of all the Brewer hitters (behind Braun), is sitting at a -.23 WPA. He has a .300 average, 5 HR, and over 20 R, and 20 RBI. Bill Hall will see his ABs significantly decrease with the addition of Russell Branyan to the teams roster. Look for Branyan to get a number of starters against RH pitching, and it will be his his playing time to lose.

Starting Pitchers (includes only the innings thrown as a starter)
1.18 Ben Sheets
0.65 Yovani Gallardo*
0.07 Seth McClung
0.04 Jeff Suppan
-0.20 Manny Parra
-1.04 Carlos Villanueva
-1.55 Dave Bush

Relief Pitchers (includes only the innings thrown as a reliever)
0.38 David Riske
0.33 Salomon Torres
0.25 Mitch Stetter*
0.16 Brian Shouse
0.10 Guillermo Mota
0.09 Carlos Villanueva
0.00 Timothy Dillard
0.00 Dave Bush
-0.01 Seth McClung
-0.03 Zack Jackson
-0.11 Mark Difielice
-0.41 Derrick Turnbow*
-0.88 Eric Gagne*

With Gagne on the DL and Turnbow in AAA the Brewers pen might actually start to be productive, or better said see their productivity through to the finish without someone screwing up their positive actions in the 8th or 9th inning. Manny Parra has been much better in recent outings, but Dave Bush continues to struggle as he has lost speed off his fastball for the past four seasons.

McClung Wins Start

2008-05-24T22:52:00.002-05:00

Seth McClung made his debut as a Brewers starter on Saturday night and pitched 5 innings allowing two earned runs on 4 hits and no walks. McClung struck out four batters during his 68 pitches. Should we expect McClung to be the Brewers savior in the rotation? My answer is NO. McClung threw 68% of his pitches for strikes, but was only at 58% going into tonights start, and his career average is only at 58%. Expect McClung to throw hard, but walk numerous batters and have to work his way out of trouble.

Brewer Hitters Analysis: Strike Zone Judgement

2008-05-19T22:48:00.002-05:00

A quick posting of the Brewer batters and who is a free swinger. I am guessing that you can guess who the free swingers are, but lets put some #s behind the thought. We will examine the % of swings each player has taken outside of the strike zone (courtesy of Fangraphs.com). Stats are through 5/19/2008.

33.66 - Ryan Braun
33.00 - Mike Rivera
28.00 - Gabe Kapler
24.69 - Prince Fielder
24.64 - Bill Hall
22.50 - Craig Counsell
22.09 - Corey Hart
21.28 - Tony Gwynn Jr
20.30 - JJ Hardy
20.00 - Joe Dillon
19.52 - Jason Kendall
17.93 - Mike Cameron
17.71 - Rickie Weeks

I am not surprised to see Ryan Braun at the top of the list, but I am surprised to see Prince Fielder swinging at more pitches outside of the zone than Bill Hall (slightly). Obviously Fielder does not get many pitches to hit, so he presses some to make things happen. Rickie Weeks is the most patient Brewer hitter, which is the reason that he has held his lead-off spot in the batting order, so it is no surprise to see that he is the Brewer that has swung at the fewest pitches outside of the strike zone.

Sunday Team Stats

2008-05-18T09:02:00.002-05:00

The Brewers aren't a good baseball team right now, and the stats prove it.

They have scored 186 runs this season (19th in MLB) and have given up 210 runs (23rd in MLB) for a net of -24. The team has a .708 OPS, and is actually better at .752 with runners in scoring position -- but drops to .600 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs. The team has stolen 25 bases (16th in MLB), but is only 25 of 38 on attempts(66%) which is far below the balance point to make it worth stealing.

The pitchers haven't faired much better posting a team ERA of 4.56 (24th in MLB). They have a 4.15 ERA in innings 1-6 (13th), but drop to last in the MLB with a team ERA of 5.39 during innings 7+. Another reason to show that throwing money at your bullpen does not work. They have allowed 179 walks, which is 24th and never a good sign. The team has struck out 280 batters (17th in MLB), and are a net -9 team K (pitching K - offensive K).

I still believe that the bats will come around, and they are running into some bad luck, but the pitching will need to improve especially the late inning pitching.

Brewer Hitters - LD% and BABIP

2008-05-17T10:00:00.001-05:00

As we examine the Brewers hitters after the signing of Ryan Braun to an eight year contract, and the demotion of Bill Hall in the batting order. I am assuming that once Bill Hall heats up that Yost will move Corey Hart to the lead-off spot (if Weeks doesn't start getting his OBP up -- which is basically him starting to hit).

Line Note: Line Drive % for 2008/Line Drive % Career/2008 BABIP
It is assumed that a players BABIP should be about .120 higher than their LD %.

Rickie Weeks - 12.0/20.0/.200
He is hitting far fewer line drives, and has run into some bad luck along the way. He should heat up some in month as his LD% moves back to normal.

Mike Cameron - 18.4/19.7/.229
LD% is right on target, but he is running into a bunch of bad luck. You would assume that his BABIP should be around .300 with a 18.4 LD%, but it is hovering around .230. It is a matter of time before he gets it going.

Ryan Braun - 17.2/16.6/.306
Braun seems to be right on line with what is expected.

Prince Fielder - 16.9/21.3/.274
His line drives are down this season as he adjusts to being completely pitched around. His LD-BABIP rate is on target.

Corey Hart - 24.8/18.5/.361
His LD% has jumped, so expect that to regress some in the coming months and his average will drop some because of it.

Bill Hall - 13.2/21.0/.206
His LD% has dropped almost 8 percentage points! His BABIP is about 50 points under his expected BABIP. Hall will bounce back this season, as he has run into some serious bad luck.

JJ Hardy - 12.5/18.0/.280
His LD% is down 5.5 percentage points, but his BABIP is slightly higher than expected based on the LD%. Look for the LD% to move upwards, and his BABIP to stay in around .280.

Jason Kendall - 18.8/22.4/.308
Hitting few line drives, but BABIP is in line with his LD%.

Gabe Kapler - 19.3/19.6/.288
BABIP could be slightly higher, but nothing out of the ordinary.

Joe Dillon - 35.7/21.2/.357
A weird line!! 35.7LD% this season (in limited ABs) compared to 21.2%, and his BABIP is only at .357 which is the same as his LD%. LD% will drop with more chances, and his BABIP will drop -- but only slightly.

Tony Gwynn Jr - 24.0/20.7/.280
Gwynn fans can point to his lines and want more playing time for him. His LD% has improved from last year, and his BABIP has shown that he has hit into some really bad luck. Look for his BABIP to rise, and for him to push for a starting job next year (which brings up the whole Matt LaPorta issue also).

Craig Counsell - 25.6/20.6/.293
LD% is higher than normal, but he has run into some bad luck as well with a .293 BABIP (should be around .370). Look for him to get a little better luck during the season than he is in his limited time now.

Overall
It seems that more Brewer hitters are running into bad luck through the early portion of the season, so expect the offense to explode in the coming months and live up to their potential. The top three regular line drive producers are: Corey Hart (24.8%), Jason Kendall (18.8%), and Mike Cameron (18.4%). That would lead me to believe that Yost is considering a shake up in the batting order (something like this):

1. Corey Hart
2. Jason Kendall
3. Ryan Braun
4. Prince Fielder
5. Mike Cameron
6. Bill Hall
7. JJ Hardy
8. PITCHER
9. Rickie Weeks

WPA Update

2008-05-12T19:46:00.002-05:00

I haven't updated the Brewers WPA lately, so here it is..... (going into Monday nights game against the Cardinals).

Hitters
.72 - Prince Fielder
.64 - Ryan Braun
.43 - Gabe Kapler
.41 - Rickie Weeks
.20 - Joe Dillon
.15 - Tony Gwynn Jr
.04 - Mike Rivera
-.17 - Mike Cameron
-.17 - Jason Kendall
-.19 - Corey Hart
-.48 - Craig Counsell
-.56 - JJ Hardy
-.63 - Bill Hall
-.54 - TEAM (includes those that are not currently on the team and pitchers batting)

*Nice to see Fielder and Braun at the top of the list after slow starts for both. Now if only we could get Bill Hall to start hitting some line drives (13.1%, which is 8% below his average) which should improve his luck some (.217 BABIP, compared to a .318 average).

Starters
.92 - Ben Sheets
.45 - Jeff Suppan
-.56 - Carlos Villanueva
-.57 - Manny Parra
-1.17 - Dave Bush

.64 - Yovani Gallardo (most likely out for the season)

*The loss of Gallardo is really going to be a serious injury for the team to overcome this year. As I write this Bush is pitching well, and the Braun bats look like they might be heating up.

Relievers
.67 - Guillermo Mota
.49 - Salomon Torres
.27 - Mitch Stetter
.24 - David Riske
.15 - Brian Shouse
-.14 - Seth McClung
-.96 - Eric Gagne

*Hard to believe that Mota is leading the relievers in WPA. Mota has a 2.25 ERA, but will explode at any given moment with a 1.50 WHIP.

Baby Steps

2008-05-10T08:39:00.003-05:00

Baseball is a game of small steps, and the Brewers finally took a small step last night after standing still for a long time. The bats were not especially good, but they came alive against a weak closer in Jason Isringhausen and the Parra tossed a good game in innings 3-5, and the pen was outstanding.

Parra still had issues with control, so he is still a concern in the rotation -- but their is hope with his retiring nine straight batters before being removed for pinch hitter Tony Gwynn Jr. David Riske and Brian Shouse both pounded the strike zone hitting on 74% and 90% of their pitches respectively.

Rickie Weeks led all hitters with a .665 WPA, most of it on the game winning hit in the 9th inning. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder both had multi-hit games -- which is a good start for the bats. All of the Brewers damage was done with 2 outs in the 9th inning -- Hardy single, Kapler pinch hit single, Kendall walk, and then the Weeks single scoring Hardy and Kapler.

The Brewers get their ace Ben Sheets (4-0 2.29) to take the hill today as they try to get back to .500 on the season. Sheets will be making his 3rd start after coming off the DL. His 1st start was a rough outing, as he walked 7 batters in 5 innings and gave up 3 earned runs, but he still managed to get the win. His 2nd outing against the Astros he was much better not walking any batters, and striking out 6, going 112 pitches in 6.1 innings.

The Brewer bats will see a lot of strikes from Cardinal pitcher Joel Pineiro (he is hitting the zone at 67%) and will try to keep the Brewer hitters off balance with 4 pitches. His pitch breakdown is as follows:

Fastball - 48.4% of pitches (89.2 mph average)
Slider - 23.3%
Change - 13.2%
Curve - 13.2%

The key for the Brewers will be to keep the batters in front of Albert Pujols off of the bases, and then attack Pujols and if he burns you then it will only be for a single run.

Why pull Parra?

2008-05-09T20:33:00.004-05:00

I am posting this as Tony Gwynn Jr is pinch hitting for Manny Parra in the bottom of the 5th inning. My question is "Why pull Manny parra in a 3-2 game in the bottom of the 5th inning?"

He gave up a solo HR to Albert Pujols in the 1st inning, and then had a rough 2nd inning, but settled down for the 3rd through 5th innings (retiring 9 straight after walking Pujols to lead off the 3rd inning). He has only thrown 83 pitches and seemed to be getting into a groove. My philosophy would be to stay with the kid when he is now pitching strong instead of turning it over to questionable bullpen.

I THINK THIS IS THE WRONG MOVE!!!!

Manny Parra: The Time Is Now

2008-05-09T16:15:00.003-05:00

The Brewers find themselves in a terrible funk of not being able to score runs, and giving up at least one big inning and return home to Miller Park off a 2-7 road trip. The trip started well with a 2-1 start, but they were then swept by the Houston Astros and Florida Marlins.

Rookie Manny Parra needs to step up big time to turn things around tonight. He is a -120 favorite in the game, which is hard to believe with a 5+ ERA and team on a big time losing streak. Parra has been hit hard, at a clip of .328, but the worst thing is his 5.53 BB/9 ratio. He is simply allowing too many runners to reach base, and he is lucky that his HR/FB and HR/9 rates are OK otherwise that ERA would be ballooned up into the 7.50 ERA range. His stuff is electric, and he averages 7.16 K/9 and forces more ground balls than fly balls. He has suffered some bad luck, as shown by his .385 BABIP.

He is averaging 91 pitches per outing, so Yost has not given him much of a leash yet. He is only hitting the strike zone on 57% of his pitches (which is Turnbow territory), so he has been giving the hitters good counts to tee off on his pitches -- thus resulting in the high BABIP. He has relied less on his FB this season, so I am guessing that pitching coach Mike Maddux is going to tell his young pitcher to rely more on the #1 and get ahead in the counts more often. His only solid start was his first start of the season on 4/5 against the Giants.

Who should close for the Brewers?

2008-05-06T18:17:00.002-05:00

After the meltdown of Eric Gagne on Sunday, which capped off a sweep of the Brewers by the Astros, the question of "Should Eric Gagne be the closer?" has been being heard far more frequently. The Brewers closer has nine saves, but has blown five saves. He has a one year 10 million dollar deal, so his contract says that he should be the closer, but what do the #'s say?

I broke down the top five relievers over the past three seasons (in my opinion). They are Joe Nathan, Francisco Rodriguez, Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner, and Mariano Rivera. I examined their K/9, BB/9, opponent AVG, P/IP, and % of pitches that were strikes. The group had an average of 39.9 saves for the years 2005-2007. Other statistical findings from this group:

K/9 - 10.0
BB/9 - 2.5
HR/9 - .58
AVG - approx .210
P/IP - 15.9
K% - .66

Eric Gagne's numbers this year are:
K/9 - 10.43
He is right in line with the top closers of the game for the previous three seasons.

BB/9
6.14
He is walking at an alarming rate of over 2:1 from the closer group.

HR/9
2.45
His HR/9 rate is almost 5 times more than the elite closer group.

Opponent AVG
.266
While I agree that average isn't the most important stat - but his avg is significantly larger than the elite group.

P/IP
21.4
Gagne is struggling to get through innings much more than the elite closers.

% of pitches for strikes
.62
He is less than the elite closer average of .66, this wouldn't be that bad if he was closer in other areas.

The other Brewer relievers breakdown this way (stats thru Monday 5/5/2008). I did not include Mitch Stetter as I am positive that he is not in any consideration to replace Gagne this season.

K/9
10.80 - Guillermo Mota
10.03 - Seth McClung
7.59 - Salomon Torres
5.51 - David Riske
3.48 - Brian Shouse
*The lack of K/9 should remove Shouse from consideration.

BB/9
2.61 - Brian Shouse
3.38 - Salomon Torres
4.41 - David Riske
6.00 - Guillermo Mota
6.94 - Seth McClung
*The lack of control should eliminate McClung and Mota from consideration. Riske is also pushing the envelope of being eliminated.

HR/9
.55 - David Riske
.60 - Guillermo Mota
1.54 - Seth McClung
1.74 - Brian Shouse
2.25 - Salomon Torres

Opponents Batting Average
.215 - Brian Shouse
.233 - Seth McClung
.235 - Guillermo Mota
.259 - Salomon Torres
.292 - David Riske

Pitches per Inning Pitched
12.5 - Brian Shouse
15.5 - Salomon Torres
16.8 - David Riske
19.7 - Guillermo Mota
22.1 - Seth McClung

% of pitches thrown for a strike
.67 - Brian Shouse
.61 - Salomon Torres
.61 - David Riske
.60 - Guillermo Mota
.57 - Seth McClung

Overall opinion....
None of the Brewer relief pitchers seem to be great options to close at this time, as they all have the strengths and weaknesses (some more than others). Bullpen was a concern for my during the off-season as the Brewers seemed to get name RPers (Gagne, Torres, Mota), but none of them are premier relievers. Are any of them better options than Gagne right now, my opinion is no. If the Brewers did make a move, then I would hope that they would go with Torres who isn't going to give up a ton of BB/9, and can work efficiently through an inning (15.5 P/IP).

Brewers at Houston Astros

2008-05-02T18:29:00.003-05:00

The Brewers (16-12) travel to the Lone Star state to take on the Houston Astros (13-16) this weekend. I will be attending game two and three of the series.

Friday
Carlos Villanueva (1-2 4.66 .16 WPA) vs Roy Oswalt (2-3 5.75 -.45 WPA)

Saturday
Manny Parra (1-1 4.94 -.21 WPA) vs Brandon Backe (1-3 4.65 -.28 WPA)

Sunday
Ben Sheets (4-0 1.64 .95 WPA) vs Chris Sampson (1-3 7.55 ERA -.66 WPA)

The Brewers should be favored in 2 of the 3 games (Saturday and Sunday), and will be dogged in the Friday Night game against Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has had a decision in 5 of his 6 starts, and his been either really good or really bad in his outings.

Ryan Braun has overtaken Prince Fielder for the WPA team lead for the Brewers (.79 to .59), as Prince suffers through a slump and Braun is riding a hot series against the Cubs. Mike Cameron is batting .233 for the Brewers in his three games since his return from a suspension (-.15 WPA). Corey Hart, and Bill Hall have been red hot over the last seven days batting over .400.

Lance Berkman is leading the Astros team in WPA at 1.42, with Miguel Tejada also contributing with a solid 1.18 WPA. Former Brewer Carlos Lee has not fully heated up yet -- he does have 6 HRs, but is batting only .262. Michael Bourn has 13 SBs on the season, and will look to run often if he reaches base against Jason Kendall. Berkman, Bourn, Hunter Pence, and Lee have batted under .200 for the past seven days.