Brewers Analysis

Over the next few posts I will examine the Brewers statistically as a team. I am going to start with the general pitching statistics today....

The Brewers finished 4th in ERA with at 3.87, and posted a ridiculously 2.53 team ERA in August. At first glance you would think that the Brewers had a great staff, but the solid team ERA was effected by luck and a good defense. The Brewers Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) ranked 16th in MLB at 4.34 which is a difference of .47 (the largest of any team). Now the Brewers defense was above average (no matter what you might expect), but it was not that big of a difference as shown by the Brewers pitchers BABIP of .293 (tied for 4th with the Cubs). The lower BABIP shows that the Brewer pitchers got lucky more often than other teams. With or without CC Sabathia and/or Ben Sheets expect the Brewers ERA to rise in the 2009 season.

NL Central ERA/FIP/BABIP
Milwaukee Brewers 3.87/4.34/.293
Chicago Cubs 3.87/4.09/.293
St. Louis Cardinals 4.20/4.40/.301
Houston Astros 4.39/4.53/.300
Cincinnati Reds 4.55/4.54/.321
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.10/4.84/.317



The Brewers ranked 7th in GB/FB ratio, and ranked 28th in HR/FB at 11.7%. It is obviously that the key to the Brewers pitching staff is to keep the ball on the ground, so it does not end up in the seats.

In examining the starters, Manny Parra led the Brewers with a 1.96 GB/FB ratio followed by CC Sabathia 1.86, Jeff Suppan 1.38, Ben Sheets 0.99, Carlos Villanueva 0.99, Dave Bush 0.97, Seth McClung 0.95, and Yovani Gallardo 0.84. The Brewers could sustain a high GB/FB ratio if they lose Sabathia, but they would drop in the rankings.

NL Central GB/FB and HR/FB
St. Louis Cardinals 1.34/10.3%
Milwaukee Brewers 1.33/11.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.27/10.8%
Cincinnati Reds 1.18/12.7%
HoustonAstros 1.17/12.1%
Chicago Cubs 1.07/9.8%

The Brewers ranked 25th in percentage of fastballs thrown at 57.3% and tied for 19th with a fastball velocity of 90.6 mph. With Mike Maddux gone from the coaching staff it is tough to predict how the Brewers will attack hitters in the 2009 season, but if they do not re-sign Ben Sheets then the fastball percentage will most likely increase as Sheets let all starters with 33% of his pitches thrown were curveballs.

NL Central FB%/FB velocity
Pittsburgh Pirates 62.6%/90.6
Houston Astros 62.5%/90.5
St. Louis Cardinals 60.7%/91.1
Chicago Cubs 57.8%/90.9
Milwaukee Brewers 57.3%/90.6
Cincinnati Reds 56.7%/91.3

An interesting note is the two teams in the NL Central Central that had the highest percentage of FB thrown, the Pirates and the Astros, also had the highest FIP and ERA in the division. They also had the lowest fastball velocity of the group (the Brewers tied with the Pirates for 2nd lowest at 90.6 mph).